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Impact of ASEAN-China free trade area agreement on ASEAN's manufacturing industry

机译：中国-东盟自由贸易区协定对东盟制造业的影响

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摘要

In November 2002 at the ministerial meeting, ASEAN and China signed an agreement to form a free trade area (FTA) by the year 2010. There was an estimation that both regions would gain from FTA deals. However, the rapid growth of China since the early 1990s is seen as a threat to ASEAN's future economic growth. Prior to November 2002, ASEAN had experienced trade and investment diversions, i.e trade and investment in the region had diverted to China. China'sudrelatively lowest cost of production as compared to ASEAN members has decreased the export competitiveness of ASEAN. The strong competition between the regions in the international commodity market and productive foreign capital has produced a great deal of stress ASEAN economies. The main reason for the economic stress is largely attributed to the structure of production and exports of ASEAN and China. Both regions engage in similar sectors of commodities production and exports. There is the factor of homogenity in production and exports in the regions. In the group of countries or regions which have a similar structure of production of commodity and exports, theoretically only countries which have the lowest cost of production willudgain in trading. On the other hand, investment diversion happens in two forms: (1) new investments or foreign firms prefer China rather than ASEAN. We should remember that the determinants of inflow of FDI in a country relies on political stability (i.e good political governance, significant institutional reforms such as land reforms, a liberal labours acts, lower cost of production in terms of labour, transportation or any costs related to businesses). Fiscal incentives are the secondary factor. Eventhough ASEAN may offer political stability but it may not offer relatively low costs of production compared to China. In this regard, and theoretically since the main objective of a firms is to make profit, so the firm will only invest in audcountry which ensures and allows that the firm would make a profits. One of the items looked at by a firm is the lowering of operating costs. Related to the first argument members of ASEAN have experienced re-location of foreign firms which were' previoulsy located in the region to China. There were a number of multinational firms, for example Harris, Seagate, National Semi-conductor, Seagate and Siemens which were located in Singapore and Malaysia had moved either their entire or part of production to China. The diversion of trade and investment of ASEAN to China is real. These diversions have explicitly affected terms-of-trade of ASEAN's economies, and have eventually contracted exports income. This paper believes that the ASEAN-China FTA does not promise a total gain to members of ASEAN. This paper does not deny that there are members of ASEAN which may receive a positive economic impact of the FTA but the question is how much will they gain. This paper will explores what the impact of ASEAN-China FTA on ASEAN'sudtrade and will provide some ideas as to how competitive members of ASEAN are against China.
机译：在2002年11月的部长级会议上，东盟与中国签署了一项协议，在2010年之前建立一个自由贸易区（FTA）。据估计，这两个地区都将从FTA交易中受益。然而，自1990年代初以来，中国的快速增长被视为对东盟未来经济增长的威胁。 2002年11月之前，东盟经历了贸易和投资转移，即该地区的贸易和投资转移到了中国。与东盟成员国相比，中国的生产成本绝对最低，这降低了东盟的出口竞争力。国际商品市场上各区域与生产性外国资本之间的激烈竞争使东盟经济承受了很大压力。经济压力的主要原因在很大程度上归因于东盟和中国的生产和出口结构。两个地区从事类似的商品生产和出口。该地区的生产和出口存在同质性因素。在商品和出口的生产结构相似的国家或地区组中，理论上只有生产成本最低的国家才会在贸易中获利。另一方面，投资转移有两种形式：（1）新投资或外国公司更喜欢中国而不是东盟。我们应该记住，外国直接投资流入一个国家的决定因素取决于政治稳定（即良好的政治治理，重大的制度改革（例如土地改革，自由劳动行为），劳动，运输或任何相关成本降低的生产成本对企业）。财政激励是次要因素。尽管东盟可能提供政治稳定，但与中国相比可能不会提供相对较低的生产成本。在这方面，从理论上讲，由于公司的主要目标是盈利，因此公司只会投资于 udcountry，以确保并允许公司盈利。企业关注的项目之一是降低运营成本。与第一个论点有关的是，东盟成员国经历了外国公司的重新安置，这些外国公司以前在该地区位于中国。有许多跨国公司，例如位于新加坡和马来西亚的哈里斯（Harris），希捷（Seagate），国家半导体，希捷（Seagate）和西门子（Siemens），已将全部或部分生产转移到中国。东盟对中国的贸易和投资转移是真实的。这些转移明显影响了东盟经济的贸易条件，并最终使出口收入缩水。本文认为，中国—东盟自由贸易协定不会给东盟成员带来总的收益。本文并不否认有一些东盟成员国可能会从自由贸易协定中获得积极的经济影响，但问题是他们将获得多少利益。本文将探讨中国-东盟自由贸易协定对东盟贸易/贸易的影响，并将提供一些关于东盟有竞争力的成员如何对华的想法。

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    Aslam M.;

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