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Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

机译：人口动态与成本效益分析。尝试通过终生生殖成功将人口动态与短期决策联系起来

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1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to 1.5 recruits per pair in an island population (Vlieland). As numbers stay roughly stable the difference points at dispersal as an important factor determining local recruitment. 3. The variation in lifetime reproductive success between individuals can be explained in the first place by variations in the recruitment rate, the chance that a fledgling returns as a breeding bird. Also variations in lifespan play a role in determining variations in lifetime reproductive success. Variations in beech crop index are not responsible for these effects. 4. Juvenile Great Tits start competing for territories in autumn. Both the density of resident territorial males and the density of candidate males affect the probability that a candidate will get a territory. A descriptive model shows that the effect of the density of resident males on the candidate settling chance is always negative. However, the effect of candidate density is dependent on the density of resident males. At low resident male densities the density of candidates has a negative effect, and at high resident male densities a positive effect on settling chance of a candidate. The consequences of this model for the settling pattern in other woods under study are discussed. 5. A speculative cost-benefit model is developed in order to explain the interaction between resident male density and candidate density in explaining settling chance as mentioned under 4. 6. Experimental manipulation of brood size is undertaken in order to measure costs and benefits associated to brood size. On basis of these experiments an optimalisation model is constructed that predicts the clutch size that maximizes first clutch recruitment. This is done on basis of a relation between manipulated brood size and nestling weight and a relation between nestling weight and recruitment probability. The prediction is far greater than the actual brood size. 7. The negative effect of an increase in brood size on the probability of producing a second clutch was included in the model, now predicting the maximal annual recruitment as a function of the size of the first brood. The predicted brood size shifts to a lower value close to the observed. 8. Measurements of energy content of female Great Tits in the incubation period in relation to temperature reveal a serious loss of fat reserves at low ambient temperatures. Whether these losses are also related to clutch size is not known. 9. The role that these models may play in understanding population dynamics is discussed.
机译：1.本文的目的是探讨行为的成本效益分析是否有助于了解物种的种群动态。以大山雀为例。 2.在大群山雀的不同种群中，一生的繁殖成功率从0.7（霍格·韦卢韦，怀瑟姆）到一个岛上种群（弗利兰德）每对新兵1.5。由于人数大致保持稳定，分散点的差异是决定当地招聘人数的重要因素。 3.首先，可以通过募集率的变化来解释个体之间终生生殖成功的变化，即新生鸟作为繁殖鸟返回的机会。寿命的变化在决定终生生殖成功的变化中也起着作用。山毛榉作物指数的变化与这些影响无关。 4.少年大奶在秋天开始争夺领土。居住领地男性的密度和候选人男性的密度都影响候选人获得领土的可能性。一个描述性模型表明，常驻雄性密度对候选人稳定机会的影响始终是负面的。但是，候选密度的影响取决于常驻雄性的密度。在低居住男性密度下，候选人的密度具有负面影响，在高居住男性密度下，对候选人的稳定机会具有正面影响。讨论了该模型对正在研究的其他木材中沉降模式的影响。 5.建立了一个投机性的成本效益模型，以解释第4节中提到的在解释沉降机会时居民雄性密度和候选密度之间的相互作用。6.进行育雏规模的实验性操纵以衡量与之相关的成本和收益育雏尺寸。在这些实验的基础上，构建了一个优化模型，该模型可预测使首次离合器招募最大化的离合器尺寸。这是根据受精卵大小与雏鸟体重之间的关系以及雏鸟体重与募集概率之间的关系完成的。该预测远大于实际的育雏尺寸。 7.模型中包括了亲鱼大小增加对产生第二个离合的可能性的负面影响，现在预测最大年招聘量是第一个亲鱼大小的函数。预计的亲鱼大小将移至接近观察值的较低值。 8.潜伏期雌性大奶能量含量与温度相关的测量表明，在低环境温度下，脂肪储备会严重损失。这些损失是否也与离合器的尺寸有关尚不清楚。 9.讨论了这些模型在理解人口动态中可能发挥的作用。

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