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Portfolio decision analysis for robust project selection and resource allocation

机译:项目组合决策分析,可进行可靠的项目选择和资源分配

摘要

Organizations must take decisions on how to allocate resources to 'go/no-go' projects to maximize the value of their project portfolio. Often these decisions are complicated by several value criteria, multiple resource types and exogenous uncertainties that influence the projects' values. Especially when the number of projects is large, the efficiency of the resource allocation and the quality of the decision making process are likely to benefit from systematic use of portfolio decision analysis. This Dissertation develops and applies novel methods to manage uncertainty in decision analytic models for project portfolio selection. These methods capture incomplete information through sets of feasible model parameter values and use dominance relations to compare portfolios. Based on the computation of all non-dominated portfolios, these methods identify i) robust portfolios that perform well across the range of feasible parameter values and ii) projects that should surely be selected or rejected in the light of the incomplete information. These methods have several implications for project portfolio decision support. Explicit consideration of incomplete information contributes to the reliability of analysis, which is likely to increase the use of portfolio decision analysis in new contexts. Furthermore, cost and time savings in data elicitation may be achieved, because these methods can give robust decision recommendations based on incomplete data and identify projects for which additional information is beneficial. Finally, these methods support consensus building within organizations as different views about projects' quality or exogenous uncertainties can be considered simultaneously to identify projects on which further negotiations should be focused.
机译:组织必须决定如何为“通过/不通过”项目分配资源,以最大化其项目组合的价值。通常,这些决策会因多个价值标准,多种资源类型以及影响项目价值的外在不确定因素而变得复杂。特别是当项目数量很大时,资源分配效率和决策过程的质量可能会受益于系统地使用投资组合决策分析。本论文开发并应用了新颖的方法来管理用于项目组合选择的决策分析模型中的不确定性。这些方法通过一组可行的模型参数值来捕获不完整的信息,并使用优势关系来比较投资组合。基于所有非主导投资组合的计算,这些方法可确定i)在可行参数值范围内表现良好的稳健投资组合,以及ii)必须根据不完整信息确定选择或拒绝的项目。这些方法对项目组合决策支持有若干影响。明确考虑不完整信息会提高分析的可靠性,这可能会增加在新情况下投资组合决策分析的使用。此外,由于这些方法可以基于不完整的数据给出可靠的决策建议,并可以确定对其他信息有益的项目,因此可以节省数据和时间,从而节省成本。最后,这些方法支持组织内部建立共识,因为可以同时考虑对项目质量或外在不确定性的不同观点,以识别应将重点放在进一步谈判上的项目。

著录项

  • 作者

    Liesiö Juuso;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2008
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
  • 中图分类

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