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Military capability management in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: the impact of domestic situational and structural factors on military capability and strategy

机译：朝鲜民主主义人民共和国的军事能力管理：国内形势和结构因素对军事能力和战略的影响

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This dissertation examines the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) military capability management. Specifically, the study focuses on how and to what extent the DPRK’s domestic situational and structural factors determine the capabilities of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) and mould national defence strategy. The thesis shows how the DPRK’s military capability management and its military industrial complex have been subject to intense centralization and politicization by the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) and the National Defence Commission (NDC). These processes have led to the diversified asymmetric capabilities of the KPA.Since the mid-1960s, the DPRK has pursued the dangui gunsa roseon (Military Lines of the Party) as the fundamental doctrine of its military capability management. The doctrine aimed to make the state’s military capability conform to Kim Il-sung’s juche (self-reliance) ideology.Soon afterwards, the DPRK established the Second Economic Committee (SEC) to oversee the development of the KPA’s capabilities. However, as the economy went into steady decline, the KPA’s capabilities were inevitably affected. Further politicization of the military strengthened from 1999 through songun (military-led) politics, also raised questions over the policy’s effectives in the defence planning context. Moreover, with the death of Kim Jong-il and continuing economic failures, there is now greater uncertainty regarding the future of this military policy given the advent of the third generation DPRK leadership under Kim Jong-un.Given domestic circumstances, it is often assumed that the DPRK does not have sufficient capacity or flexibility to reconfigure its military capability. This dissertation examines these assumptions in greater depth by posing the following questions: What is the essential function of DPRK defence planning? What is the nature of the DPRK’s military capability development?How are the KPA’s capabilities reflected in the DPRK’s military strategy? This thesis applies methods used in defence planning such as the input-conversion-output model to the DPRK’s political-economic structure and situation to uncover the dynamics and objectives of the DPRK’s military capability management process. The thesis finds that Pyongyang faces numerous planning dilemmas, which not only have had decisive implications for the KPA’s mobilization capabilities, but also explain many aspects of the DPRK’s military behaviour to date.
机译：本文研究了朝鲜民主主义人民共和国（DPRK）的军事能力管理。具体来说，该研究的重点是朝鲜国内的局势和结构因素如何以及在多大程度上决定了朝鲜人民军的能力并影响了国防战略。本文说明了朝鲜工人党（WPK）和国防委员会（NDC）如何对朝鲜的军事能力管理及其军事工业园区进行严格的集中化和政治化。这些过程导致了KPA的多样化不对称能力.1960年代中期以来，朝鲜一直奉行dangui gunsa roseon（党的军事路线）作为其军事能力管理的基本理论。该学说旨在使该州的军事能力符合金日成的自给自足的思想。不久之后，朝鲜成立了第二经济委员会（SEC）来监督KPA的能力发展。但是，随着经济稳定下滑，KPA的能力不可避免地受到影响。自从1999年通过军政府（songun）军事政治加强了军队的进一步政治化，也对国防计划中该政策的有效性提出了质疑。此外，随着金正日之死和持续的经济失败，鉴于金正恩在第三代朝鲜领导人的出现下，现在的军事政策的未来存在更大的不确定性。朝鲜没有足够的能力或灵活性来重新配置其军事能力。本文通过提出以下问题来更深入地研究这些假设：朝鲜国防计划的基本功能是什么？朝鲜军事能力发展的本质是什么？KPA的能力如何反映在朝鲜的军事战略中？本文将防务规划中使用的方法（如输入－转换－输出模型）应用于朝鲜的政治经济结构和局势，以揭示朝鲜军事能力管理过程的动态和目标。论文发现，平壤面临众多计划困境，这不仅对朝鲜人民武装力量的动员能力具有决定性意义，而且还可以解释迄今为止朝鲜的军事行为的许多方面。

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