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Relying on informal care in the new century? Informal care for elderly people in England to 2031

机译：依靠新世纪的非正式护理？到2031年英格兰的老年人非正式护理

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摘要

The research reported here is concerned with the future of informal care over the next thirty years and the effect of changes in informal care on demand for formal services. The research draws on a PSSRU computer simulation model which has produced projections to 2031 for long-term care for England. The latest Government Actuary's Department (GAD) 1996-based marital status projections are used here. These projections yield unexpected results in that they indicate that more elderly people are likely to receive informal care than previously projected. The underlying reason is that the GAD figures project a fall in the number of widows and rise in the number of elderly women with partners. What this implies is that ‘spouse carers’ are likely to become increasingly important. This raises issues about the need for support by carers since spouse carers tend to be themselves elderly and are often in poor health. The article explores a number of ‘scenarios’ around informal care, including scenarios in which the supply of informal care is severely restricted and a scenario in which more support is given to carers by developing ‘carer-blind’ services. This last scenario has had particular relevance for the Royal Commission on Long Term Care.
机译：此处报道的研究关注未来30年非正式护理的未来以及非正式护理的变化对正式服务需求的影响。这项研究借鉴了PSSRU计算机仿真模型，该模型为英国的长期护理提供了2031年的预测。这里使用了最新的基于政府精算师（GAD）1996年的婚姻状况预测。这些预测产生了意想不到的结果，因为它们表明接受非正式护理的老年人比以前预测的要多。根本原因是，GAD的数字表明，寡妇人数减少，有伴侣的老年妇女人数增加。这意味着“配偶照顾者”可能变得越来越重要。这就提出了需要照顾者支持的问题，因为配偶照顾者往往年老并且健康状况不佳。本文探讨了有关非正式护理的许多“方案”，其中包括非正式护理供应受到严格限制的方案，以及通过开发“盲人服务”为护工提供更多支持的方案。最后一种情况与皇家长期护理委员会特别相关。

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