• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文OA文献 >Higher economic growth through macroeconomic policy coordination? The combination of wage policy and monetary policy
【2h】

Higher economic growth through macroeconomic policy coordination? The combination of wage policy and monetary policy

机译：通过宏观经济政策协调实现更高的经济增长？工资政策与货币政策相结合

页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Strengthening potential output is high on the agenda for economic policy in the European Union. While there is widespread agreement that structural policies have a positive impact on long-term growth, there is a controversial discussion whether coordination of macroeconomic policies can contribute to this goal. Against the background of the new economic conditions in the euro area, we analyze what could be gained from a combination of wage policy and monetary policy. Using a small theoretical macroeconomic model, we show that coordination between wage policy and monetary policy can be beneficial under certain assumptions. A policy of sustained wage moderation results in an increase in employment and potential output. Assuming that expectations are not completely forward-looking and prices are sticky, the upward shift in potential output will not be matched by a similar increase in aggregate demand. To prevent an output gap from emerging, the optimal monetary policy is to lower interest rates. However, a central bank aiming at price stability will only do so when the announcement of a policy of sustained wage moderation is credible. Simulations with a large macroeconometric multicountry model confirm that a coordination of German wage policy and ECB monetary policy would help to realize the beneficial effects of wage moderation somewhat faster, although the quantitative effect is relatively small. The long-run gain in employment would accrue regardless of a coordination with monetary policy. According to the simulations, employment in Germany would increase by about 750,000 persons in the long run if wages increase one percentage point slower than usual over a period of five years. Frequently, countries with a particularly positive economic development are said to have benefited from a coordination of macroeconomic policies. However, only a small part of the growth and employment success in these countries can be accounted for such a coordination. In the case of the United States, it is hard to see any evidence of ex ante policy coordination at all. In the Netherlands and in Ireland, a consensual strategy of wage restraint for improving the competitiveness of the economy and stimulating employment has been a significant factor of the economic success. It was important in both cases that significant supply side reforms were implemented by the governments at the same time, whereas monetary policy played no active role. Coordination of macro policies is severely complicated by the pronounced differences in national wage bargaining systems. The systems would have to be harmonized and centralized to create a single European wage policy. It is, however, unlikely that centrally designed harmonization of labor market institutions in the EU can cope with the differences across Euroland regarding productivity and employment. In the framework of the European Union, the presumed positive effects of policy coordination are stressed over and over again, for example in the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines. However, clear definitions and mechanisms how such a coordination can be achieved are missing. The fundamental difficulty concerning a coordination between wage policy and monetary policy arises from two facts: First, there is no such thing as u201ctheu201d wage policy at the European level. Second, the statute of the ECB does not allow a binding commitment by the central bank. This does not mean, however, that the ECB would not take account of what is happening, for example, to wage developments. According to the monetary policy strategy, it should react if there is an increase in the growth rate of potential output as a result of wage moderation. For example: If the social partners in a large country such as Germany give a credible signal that wage increases will be moderate for several years, the ECB could accommodate this change. However, such a strategy cannot be reversed in that the ECB moves first hoping that wage moderation will follow.
机译：加强潜在产出是欧洲联盟经济政策议程的重中之重。尽管人们普遍认为结构性政策会对长期增长产生积极影响，但仍有争议的是，宏观经济政策的协调是否可以促进这一目标的实现。在欧元区新经济状况的背景下，我们分析了工资政策和货币政策相结合可以带来的好处。使用一个小的理论宏观经济模型，我们表明在某些假设下，工资政策和货币政策之间的协调可能是有益的。持续的工资节制政策将增加就业和潜在产出。假设预期并不完全具有前瞻性，并且价格具有粘性，那么潜在产出的上升将不会与总需求的类似增长相匹配。为了防止出现产出缺口，最佳的货币政策是降低利率。但是，只有在宣布持续工资适度政策可信的情况下，旨在稳定价格的中央银行才会这样做。使用大型宏观计量经济多国模型进行的仿真证实，尽管定量影响相对较小，但德国工资政策与欧洲央行货币政策的协调将有助于更快地实现工资适度的有利效果。无论与货币政策的协调如何，长期的就业机会都会增加。根据模拟，如果五年内工资增长比平时慢一个百分点，从长远来看，德国的就业机会将增加约750,000人。经常说，那些经济发展特别积极的国家受益于宏观经济政策的协调。但是，在这些国家中，只有很小一部分的增长和就业成功可归因于这种协调。就美国而言，几乎看不到任何事前政策协调的证据。在荷兰和爱尔兰，为提高经济竞争力和刺激就业而制定的共识性工资限制策略已成为经济成功的重要因素。在这两种情况下，重要的是政府同时实施了重要的供应方改革，而货币政策没有发挥积极作用。国家工资谈判制度的显着差异使宏观政策的协调工作变得极为复杂。必须统一和集中这些系统，以创建单一的欧洲工资政策。但是，欧盟劳动力市场机构的统一设计不可能解决欧元区在生产率和就业方面的差异。在欧洲联盟的框架内，一次又一次地强调了政策协调的假定积极作用，例如《广泛的经济政策准则》。但是，缺少明确的定义和机制来实现这种协调。关于工资政策和货币政策之间协调的根本困难来自两个事实：首先，在欧洲，没有诸如工资政策之类的东西。其次，欧洲央行的法规不允许中央银行作出有约束力的承诺。但是，这并不意味着欧洲央行将不会考虑发生的事情，例如工资的上涨。根据货币政策战略，如果由于工资节制而导致潜在产出的增长率增加，它应该做出反应。例如：如果像德国这样的大国中的社会伙伴发出可信的信号，表明工资上涨将在几年内保持温和，那么欧洲央行可以适应这种变化。但是，这种策略无法逆转，因为欧洲央行首先采取行动，希望工资节制能够随之而来。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号