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On the structure of rationalizability for arbitrary spaces of uncertainty

机译:论任意不确定空间的合理性结构

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摘要

Weinstein and Yildiz (Econometrica, 2007) have shown that only very weak predictions are robust to mispecifications of higher order beliefs. Whenever a type has multiple rationalizable actions, any of these actions is uniquely rationalizable for some arbitrarily close type. Hence, refinements of rationalizability are not robust. This negative result is obtained under a richness condition, which essentially means that all common knowledge assumptions on payoffs are relaxed. In many settings this condition entails an unnecessarily demanding robustness test. It is therefore natural to explore the structure of rationalizability when arbitrary common knowledge assumptions are relaxed (i.e., without assuming richness). For arbitrary spaces of uncertainty, and for every player i, I construct a set A_{i} u221e} of actions that are uniquely rationalizable for some hierarchy of beliefs. The main result shows that for any type t_{i}, and any action a_{i} rationalizable for t_{i}, if a_{i} belongs to A_{i} u221e} and is justified by conjectures concentrated on A_{-i} u221e}, then there exists a sequence of types converging to t_{i} for which a_{i} is uniquely rationalizable. This result significantly generalizes Weinstein and Yildiz's. Some of its implications are discussed in the context of auctions, equilibrium refinements and in connection with the literature on global games.
机译:Weinstein和Yildiz(Econometrica,2007年)表明,只有非常微弱的预测才能对高阶信念的规范化产生鲁棒性。每当一个类型具有多个合理化操作时,对于某些任意接近的类型,这些操作中的任何一个都是唯一合理化的。因此,合理性的改进并不可靠。这个负面结果是在丰富条件下获得的,这实质上意味着放宽了所有关于收益的常识假设。在许多情况下,这种情况需要进行不必要的鲁棒性测试。因此,在放宽任意公知假设(即不假设丰富性)的情况下,探索合理性的结构是很自然的。对于不确定性的任意空间,对于每个参与者i,我构造一组行为A_ {i} u221e},这些行为对于某些信念层次结构是唯一合理的。主要结果表明,对于任何类型的t_ {i}以及对于t_ {i}而言合理的任何动作a_ {i},如果a_ {i}属于A_ {i} u221e}并由集中于A_ { -i} u221e},那么存在收敛到t_ {i}的一系列类型,对此a_ {i}是唯一合理的。这个结果大大推广了温斯坦和伊尔迪兹的观点。在拍卖,均衡改进的背景下以及与全球游戏相关的文献中讨论了其中的一些含义。

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    Penta Antonio;

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  • 年度 2013
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