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Too close to call: Growth and the cost of ruling in US presidential elections, with an application to the 2012 election

机译：太接近电话：增长和美国总统选举的执政成本，申请2012年大选

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摘要

The note briefly outlines a new model for the explanation of US presidential elections, founded on (a) recent economic growth and (b) a measure of what may be called “’the cost of ruling”. The former is based in changes in real disposable income for the period following a mid-term election, while the latter combines factors of incumbency and terms-in-office. The model is applied to data from the US presidential elections 1932-2008 and has considerable explanatory power for the variation in the incumbent party’s candidate’s share of the two-party vote (R2=0.74). The model is controlled against a number of other frequent explanations and is found to be quite robust. When augmented with approval ratings for incumbent presidents, the explanatory power increases to 83 pct. and only incorrectly calls one of the last 15 US presidential elections. Applied to the 2012 election as a forecasting model the prediction is that President Obama will win 49,6 pct. of the two-party vote.
机译：该说明简要概述了一种新的模型，用于解释美国总统大选，该模型建立在（a）最近的经济增长和（b）衡量所谓“执政成本”的基础上。前者是基于中期选举后的实际可支配收入的变化，而后者则结合了任职和任期的因素。该模型适用于1932-2008年美国总统大选的数据，对于现任政党候选人在两党选举中的份额差异具有相当大的解释力（R2 = 0.74）。该模型针对许多其他常见的解释进行了控制，并且发现该模型非常健壮。当增加现任总统的批准等级时，解释力增加到83 pct。而且只会错误地调用最近15场美国总统选举之一。适用于2012年大选作为预测模型的预测是，奥巴马总统将赢得49,6 pct。两党投票。

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    Kurrild-Klitgaard Peter;

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