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Is the Optimism in shareholder letters associated with future financial performance? - A study of sincerity in shareholder letters of U.S. banks issued prior to and in the outbreak of the financial crisis

机译：股东信函中的乐观主义是否与未来的财务业绩相关？ - 对美国股东信件诚意的研究银行在金融危机爆发前和爆发期间发行

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In this study we examine whether or not optimistic tone in shareholder letters is sincere. By replicating the methodology of Patelli and Pedrini (J Bus Ethics 124:19–34, 2014) we contrast impression management theory with communicative action theory, and conduct text analysis of shareholder letters through the linguistic software program DICTION. Furthermore, we extend Patelli and Pedrini’s (J Bus Ethics 124:19–34, 2014) study by capturing and comparing two different macroeconomic contexts in a large sample of publicly listed U.S. banks. In contrast to Patelli and Pedrini (J Bus Ethics 124:19–34, 2014), who found support for sincere communication by Fortune 500 firms in the outbreak of the global financial crisis, we find that optimistic tone was not positively associated with future financial performance neither prior to nor in the outbreak of the financial crisis. Thus with our results, we contribute to the academic field of impression management. Moreover, our study is of value to academics and other users of shareholder letters, which should question the sincerity of information communicated. However, as our study is limited to banks that survived the financial crisis, consideration of the survival bias should be taken. If accessibility of bankrupt banks’ annual reports is improved, a suggestion for further research could be to include these to test whether our results are supported.
机译：在这项研究中，我们研究了股东信函中的乐观态度是否真诚。通过复制Patelli和Pedrini的方法（2014年，J Bus Ethics，124：19-34），我们将印象管理理论与交往行为理论进行了对比，并通过语言软件程序DICTION对股东信件进行了文本分析。此外，我们通过捕获和比较大量美国上市银行样本中的两种不同的宏观经济背景，扩展了Patelli和Pedrini的研究（J Bus Ethics 124：19-34，2014）。与Patelli和Pedrini（2014年J Bus Ethics 124：19–34，J Bus Ethics，2014年）相比，他们发现在全球金融危机爆发时支持财富500强企业进行真诚的沟通，我们发现乐观的基调与未来的金融并没有正相关在金融危机爆发之前或爆发期间的表现。因此，凭借我们的成果，我们为印象管理的学术领域做出了贡献。此外，我们的研究对学术界和其他股东函的使用者具有价值，这应该质疑所传达信息的诚意。但是，由于我们的研究仅限于在金融危机中幸存下来的银行，因此应考虑生存偏差。如果破产银行的年度报告的可访问性得到改善，那么可能需要进行进一步研究的建议是将其包括在内以测试我们的结果是否得到支持。

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