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METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF UNFAVOURABLE CARDIOVASCULAR EVENTS IN ELDERLY AND SENILE PATIENTS WITHIN FIVE YEARS AFTER SUFFERED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION
METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF UNFAVOURABLE CARDIOVASCULAR EVENTS IN ELDERLY AND SENILE PATIENTS WITHIN FIVE YEARS AFTER SUFFERED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION
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机译：心肌梗塞后五年内老年人和老年患者不良心血管事件的预测方法
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摘要
FIELD: medicine.;SUBSTANCE: invention relates to cardiology, and can be used for prediction of unfavourable cardiovascular events in elderly and senile patients within five years after suffered myocardial infarction (MI). Main factors are determined: presence of reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, determined during hospitalization for myocardial infarction, the presence of chronic cardiac failure (CHF) in the previous stage II A clinical history and higher, presence of complications of acute myocardial infarction, regularity of out-patient follow-up after MI. Probability of unfavourable cardiovascular events is determined by formula: p = 1/(1 + exp (-z)), where p - probability of unfavourable cardiovascular events; z - value of discriminant function, and value of discriminant function is determined by formula: z = a + bx1 + cx2 + dx3 + ex4, where a is constant, x1-x4 - values of variables corresponding to the considered indicators, coefficients b, c, d, e - weight coefficients of the corresponding indicators: a = -1.397, b = 1.349, x1 - reduced glomerular filtration rate less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, x1= 1 with reduction of glomerular filtration rate less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, x1= 0 at glomerular filtration rate 60 and more ml/min/1.73 m2, c = 2.228, x2 - presence of CHF in previous II A stage and above, x2= 1 in the presence of chronic heart failure in the II A stage and above, x2= 0 in the absence of CHF in the II A previous clinical stage and higher, d = 0.933, x3 - presence of acute myocardial infarction complications, x3= 1 if observing acute MI complications, x3= 0 with no complications of acute MI, e = 1.709, x4 - regularity of out-patient observation, x4= 1 in case of irregular out-patient observation after MI, x4= 0 with regular out-patient observation after MI. If value p≥0.5 predict developing unfavourable cardiovascular events within five years of postinfarction period.;EFFECT: method provides high-accuracy prediction of unfavourable cardiovascular events in elderly and senile patients within five years after MI as a result of determining a set of factors influencing the development of unfavourable cardiovascular events in the post-infarction period using the inverse step-by-step regression technique.;1 cl, 1 tbl, 2 ex
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机译：技术领域本发明涉及心脏病学，并且可以用于预测遭受心肌梗塞（MI）的五年内的老年和老年患者的不利心血管事件。确定的主要因素是：在住院期间因心肌梗塞而确定的肾小球滤过率（GFR）<60 ml / min / 1.73 m 2 的降低，以前的慢性心力衰竭（CHF）的存在II期临床病史及更高水平，急性心肌梗塞并发症的存在，MI后门诊随访的规律性。心血管不良事件的概率由以下公式确定：p = 1 /（1 + exp（-z）），其中p-心血管不良事件的概率; z-判别函数的值，判别函数的值由以下公式确定：z = a + bx 1 + cx 2 + dx 3 + ex 4 ，其中a为常数，x 1 -x 4 -与所考虑指标，系数b，c， d，e-相应指标的权重系数：a = -1.397，b = 1.349，x 1 -降低的肾小球滤过率小于60 ml / min / 1.73 m 2 ，x 1 = 1，肾小球滤过率降低小于60 ml / min / 1.73 m 2 ，肾小球x 1 = 0过滤速率60及更高ml / min / 1.73 m 2 ，c = 2.228，x 2 -在先前的II A级及更高水平的CHF存在，x 2 = 1（在II A级及以上的慢性心力衰竭患者中），x 2 = 0在II A以前的临床阶段及更高水平的CHF患者中（无CHF），d = 0.933 ，x 3 -急性心肌梗死并发症的存在，如果观察到急性MI并发症，则x 3 = 1，如果没有急性MI并发症，则x 3 = 0，e = 1.709，x 4 -规律性门诊观察中，MI后出现不规则门诊时，x 4 = 1，MI后出现常规门诊时，x 4 = 0。如果值p≥0.5预测梗死后五年内发生不利的心血管事件。效果：该方法可通过确定一系列影响因素的结果，对MI后五年内老年和老年患者的不利心血管事件进行高精度预测逆逐步回归技术在梗塞后期不良心血管事件的发生上发展。1cl，1 tbl，2 ex
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