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Techniques to Improve Global Weather Forecasting Using Model Blending and Historical GPS-RO Dataset

机译:使用模型融合和历史GPS-RO数据集改善全球天气预报的技术

摘要

Techniques for improving weather forecasting using model blending and historical global positioning system-radio occultation (GPS-RO) measurements are provided. In one aspect, a method for weather forecasting includes: obtaining historical GPS-RO measurements; determining a refractive index of the atmosphere from the GPS-RO measurements; obtaining historical forecasts from multiple individual numerical weather models from a same given time period as the GPS-RO measurements; statistically correcting the historical forecasts using the refractive index of the atmosphere determined from the GPS-RO measurements; blending the numerical weather models using the statistically corrected historical forecasts to create a blended weather model, wherein the blending is performed to improve a forecast of the refractive index of the atmosphere by the blended weather model; and forecasting primary weather parameters using the blended weather model. Secondary weather parameters (e.g., wind speed and/or precipitation) can then be forecasted using the primary weather parameters by physical or statistical methods.
机译:提供了使用模型融合和历史全球定位系统无线电掩星(GPS-RO)测量来改善天气预报的技术。在一个方面,一种用于天气预报的方法包括:获得历史GPS-RO测量值;以及根据GPS-RO测量确定大气的折射率;在与GPS-RO测量相同的给定时间段内,从多个单独的数字天气模型获得历史预报;使用从GPS-RO测量确定的大气折射率对历史预测进行统计校正;使用经统计校正的历史预报将数值天气模型混合以创建混合天气模型,其中进行混合以通过混合天气模型改善对大气的折射率的预测;并使用混合天气模型预测主要天气参数。然后可以通过物理或统计方法使用主要天气参数来预测次要天气参数(例如,风速和/或降水)。

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