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Method for physically based forecasting of Changma Onset
Method for physically based forecasting of Changma Onset
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机译：昌马疫情的物理预报方法
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摘要
The present invention relates to a method for predicting the physical statistics of the beginning of the rainy season using the spring sea level temperature, which is a boundary forcing associated with physical phenomena affecting the interannual variability of the rainy season start date, The first step is to calculate the sea surface temperature anomalies directly or indirectly affecting the expansion and migration of the North Pacific high pressure that affects the North Pacific. The multiple linear regression model to predict the rainy season start date using the sea surface temperature anomaly data obtained in the first step A third step of calculating three preceding factors constituting the rainy season start date, a third step of predicting a rainy season start date by substituting the three preceding factors calculated in the second step into the constructed statistical prediction model, And comparing the predicted results with the observed rainy season start index in the summer Will.
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