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Method and system for short-term precipitation forecasting based on probability distribution

机译:基于概率分布的短期降水预报方法和系统

摘要

A system and method for generating a short-term forecast for a given location over a period of time. The system receives meteorological observations and predictions for a given location from multiple weather data sources and processes the information to obtain a probability distribution of precipitation types (PType) and precipitation (PRate) over an arbitrary period of time. Find the probability distribution of. The two probability distributions are then combined to obtain a plurality of probability distributions (PTypeRate predictions) that indicate the probability that a particular type of precipitation will occur at a given location with a specific amount of precipitation in any period. In some embodiments, instead of determining the distribution of PType, one precipitation type is selected based on weather observations input to the system, and the selected precipitation type is specified at a given location at any time period. A PTypeRate prediction can be generated that indicates the probability of the precipitation occurring. [Selection] Figure 1
机译:一种用于在一段时间内针对给定位置生成短期预测的系统和方法。该系统从多个天气数据源接收给定位置的气象观测和预测,并处理该信息以获得任意时间段内降水类型(PType)和降水(PRate)的概率分布。查找的概率分布。然后,将这两个概率分布进行组合以获得多个概率分布(PTypeRate预测),这些概率分布指示特定类型的降水将在给定位置发生且在任何时期内都有特定数量的降水的概率。在一些实施例中,代替确定PType的分布,而是基于输入到系统的天气观测来选择一种降水类型,并且在任何时间段的给定位置处指定所选择的降水类型。可以生成指示降水发生概率的PTypeRate预测。 [选择]图1

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