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SHORT TERM CLOUD FORECAST, IMPROVED CLOUD RECOGNITION AND PREDICTION AND UNCERTAINTY INDEX ESTIMATION

机译:短期云预测,改善了云识别和预测和不确定性指标估计

摘要

A short-term cloud forecasting system includes a cloud segmentation processor that receives image data from images captured by an all sky camera. The cloud segmentation processor calculates a probability for each pixel in an image that the pixel is representative of a cloud. A cloud motion estimation processor calculates a motion vector representing estimated cloud motion calculates weights representing the likelihood that the cloud motion will cause a cloud to occlude the sun at a time in the near future. An uncertainty processor calculates one or more uncertainty indexes that quantify the confidence that a cloud forecast is accurate. Combining the cloud probabilities, the global motion vector and the at least one uncertainty index, in a sun occlusion prediction processor produces a short-term cloud forecast based on the image data that may be used as input to control systems for controlling a power grid.
机译:短期云预测系统包括云分段处理器,其从所有天空相机捕获的图像接收图像数据。 云分段处理器计算像素代表云的图像中的每个像素的概率。 云运动估计处理器计算代表估计云运动的运动矢量计算表示云运动将导致云在不久的将来一次遮挡太阳的可能性的权重。 不确定性处理器计算一个或多个不确定性索引,这些指数量化云预测准确的信心。 在太阳遮挡预测处理器中结合云概率,全局运动矢量和至少一个不确定性指数,基于可以用作用于控制电网的控制系统的图像数据产生短期云预测。

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