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SHORT TERM CLOUD FORECAST, IMPROVED CLOUD RECOGNITION AND PREDICTION AND UNCERTAINTY INDEX ESTIMATION
SHORT TERM CLOUD FORECAST, IMPROVED CLOUD RECOGNITION AND PREDICTION AND UNCERTAINTY INDEX ESTIMATION
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机译:短期云预测,改善了云识别和预测和不确定性指标估计
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摘要
A short-term cloud forecasting system includes a cloud segmentation processor that receives image data from images captured by an all sky camera. The cloud segmentation processor calculates a probability for each pixel in an image that the pixel is representative of a cloud. A cloud motion estimation processor calculates a motion vector representing estimated cloud motion calculates weights representing the likelihood that the cloud motion will cause a cloud to occlude the sun at a time in the near future. An uncertainty processor calculates one or more uncertainty indexes that quantify the confidence that a cloud forecast is accurate. Combining the cloud probabilities, the global motion vector and the at least one uncertainty index, in a sun occlusion prediction processor produces a short-term cloud forecast based on the image data that may be used as input to control systems for controlling a power grid.
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