The focus of this workshop is to identify long-term trends and developments affecting the future of air transportation. If you have worked on the commercial side during the past 20 years, you know that rapid and substantive change has been the norm. You also know that "long-term" often means next week. To be a forecaster in the air-line industry, as I once was, requires a strong sense of humility, because the future so often follows neither the trend lines nor conventional wisdom. Thus, it is with both humility and presumption that I stand before you to share some developments and trends that I believe deserve your close attention as you try to figure out what the future holds. What are my qualifications for occupying this podium? I am neither an economist nor a futurist; I am just a former airline person. However, I have been both a participant in and a student of this industry for nearly 40 years, and maybe that is worth something. I must confess at the outset that I do not have many answers today, but I do have many questions for your to ponder. My comments will focus on four subjects: airplanes, pricing, alliances, and government policy.
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