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Forecasting on Current Runoff and Sediment Variation and Trend in the Yellow River Basin

机译:黄河流域径流,泥沙变化及趋势预测。

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摘要

Based on the fixed position observation data of hydrology and sediment of mainstream and its tributaries of the Upper and Middle Yellow River, and adopted Hydrology Method and Soil and Water Conservation Method, the runoff and sediment variation regimes in year 1997-2006 0f the Yellow River basin are analyzed and the future runoff and sediment variation trends are predicted in this paper The analysis shows that compared with the year before 1970, the measured annual runoff of the Yellow River reduces 11. 212 billion m3. thereinto. the effect of human activities such as soil and water conservation measures accounts for 77.1%. and the effct of rainfall reduction accounts for 22.9%. The measured annual sediment runoff reduces l.18 billion t, thereinto, the effect of human activities such as soil and water conservation measures accounts for 47.1%. and the effect of rainfall reduction accounts for 52.9%. The main body of sediment reduction of the Middle Yellow River area is still in the Hekouzhen-Longmen interval section. The incoming runoff and sediment of the Yellow River before year 2050 would be flat trending to low flow trend in general, but it can not exclude the possibility of occurring rich water and rich sediment in individual year or short period of time.
机译:根据黄河中上游干流及其支流的水文和泥沙的固定位置观测数据,并采用水文方法和水土保持方法,对黄河1997-2006 0f年的径流和泥沙变化规律进行了研究。对流域进行了分析,并对未来径流和泥沙变化趋势进行了预测。分析表明,与1970年之前的年份相比,黄河的实测年径流量减少了11.212亿立方米。其中。水土保持措施等人类活动的影响占77.1%。减雨效果占22.9%。测得的年径流量减少了118亿吨,其中水土保持措施等人类活动的影响占47.1%。减雨效果占52.9%。黄河中游区减沙的主体仍在河口镇—龙门区间段。到2050年之前,黄河的入水径流和沉积物总体上将趋于平缓,趋于低流量趋势,但不能排除个别年份或短期内出现富水和富沙的可能性。

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