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首页> 外文会议>2012 International Conference on Statistics in Science, Business, and Engineering. >Predictive models of prolonged stay after Coronary Artery Bypass surgery
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Predictive models of prolonged stay after Coronary Artery Bypass surgery

机译：冠状动脉搭桥手术后长期停留的预测模型

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The prolonged hospitalisation after cardiac surgery can significantly describe the patients' health status. Many studies have assessed the risk factors associated with prolonged stay after cardiac surgery in hospital but only a few predictive models have been developed. Therefore, this study is aimed to build a logistic regression and decision tree model in predicting the prolonged stay for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft surgery (CABG) patients after surgery. This study included 3560 patients who received CABG from a heart surgery centre in Malaysia for a period of three years (2007–2010). Risk factors such as age, diabetes, hypertension, gender, obesity, chest re-operation and complications (such as stroke, wound infection and atrial fibrillation) after surgery were determined by the predictive models. Overall, 2499 of CABG patients were discharged within less than 10 days, whereas 1061 patients required prolonged > 10 days stays. The study population consisted of patients aged 21 to 85 years with 13.1% of female and 76.9% of male patients. From the analysis, predictive accuracy for decision tree (CHAID) and logistic regression (Enter) model were 65.86% and 75.87% respectively. Logistic model revealed that age, diabetes mellitus, chest re-operation (I), atrial fibrillation and wound infection influenced the CABG patients' prolonged length of stay.
机译：心脏手术后长期住院可以显着描述患者的健康状况。许多研究评估了与心脏外科手术后住院时间延长有关的危险因素，但仅开发了少数预测模型。因此，本研究旨在建立逻辑回归和决策树模型，以预测冠状动脉旁路移植手术（CABG）患者术后的长期停留时间。这项研究包括3560名在马来西亚心脏外科中心接受CABG治疗的患者，为期3年（2007-2010年）。通过预测模型确定风险因素，例如年龄，糖尿病，高血压，性别，肥胖，胸部再手术以及术后并发症（例如中风，伤口感染和心房颤动）。总体而言，CABG患者中有2499名患者在不到10天的时间内出院，而1061例患者需要住院> 10天。研究人群包括年龄在21至85岁之间的女性，其中女性为13.1％，男性为76.9％。通过分析，决策树（CHAID）和逻辑回归（Enter）模型的预测准确性分别为65.86％和75.87％。 Logistic模型显示年龄，糖尿病，胸部再手术（I），房颤和伤口感染影响了CABG患者的长期住院时间。

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