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首页> 外文会议>2013 8th International Conference on Information Technology in Asia : Smart Devices Trend: Technologising Future Lifestyle >An epidemic aggregate and individual-based model in a patchy environment
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An epidemic aggregate and individual-based model in a patchy environment

机译：零散环境中的流行病聚集和基于个体的模型

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The spatial heterogeneity of susceptible-infected-recovered type of compartmental models are commonly expressed in ordinary differential equation based patchy models, in which all individuals are regarded as having the same type of epidemiological profile and demographic characteristics. However, these patchy aggregate models are often complicated to be constructed especially for three or more patches. Nevertheless, with the help of System Dynamics Modeler in NetLogo, we can conveniently construct a three-patch susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. A scenario analysis of three residential areas in which individuals are allowed to migrate among those areas was carried out. The same analysis was then carried out by an individual-based model simulated with agent-based modeling technique, in NetLogo as well. The simulation show that the results of individual-based model agree well with the aggregate model by carefully setting the parameters value involved. Hence, individual-based models could be potentially extended as a visualization tool for observing the evolution of epidemic dynamics taking into account weather conditions, landscape patterns and individual behaviours.
机译：易感感染恢复型隔室模型的空间异质性通常在基于普通微分方程的斑块模型中表达，其中所有个体都被认为具有相同的流行病学特征和人口统计学特征。但是，这些补丁聚合模型通常很难构建，尤其是对于三个或更多补丁而言。但是，借助NetLogo中的System Dynamics Modeler，我们可以方便地构建三补丁易感性感染易感性（SIS）模型。对三个居住区进行了情景分析，其中允许个人在这些居住区之间迁移。然后，在NetLogo中，也通过使用基于代理的建模技​​术对基于个人的模型进行仿真来进行相同的分析。仿真表明，通过仔细设置所涉及的参数值，基于个人的模型的结果与聚合模型非常吻合。因此，基于个人的模型可以潜在地扩展为一种可视化工具，用于在考虑天气条件，景观格局和个人行为的情况下观察流行病动态的演变。

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