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首页> 外文会议>2014 International Conference on Engineering, Technology and Innovation >Optimal timing of strategic partnership for biotechnology start-ups
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Optimal timing of strategic partnership for biotechnology start-ups

机译：生物技术初创企业战略合作的最佳时机

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Investment in biotechnology start-ups has recently created ‘Virtual Biotechnology Start-up’ model due to venture capital's reluctance and hardness for established pharmaceutical companies as licensees facing with patent cliff of blockbuster drugs and competition against generic drugs since Lehman Shock. VBS model is a call option because a predetermined pharmaceutical firm has an exclusive right to buy the start-up, if they succeeded in proof of concept. A research question is what the optimal irreversible timing is for biotechnology start-ups respectively to invest in R&D and then out-license forward established pharmaceutical firms in order to survive. Biotechnology start-up is defined as a portfolio of real options. Option-games approach is an integrated methodology between real options and game theory for the optimal trade-off between flexibility in irreversible investment under uncertainty and preemptive commitment in competitiveness. Treated is a continual-time duopolistic sequential-investment game model. An objective is to analyze the pioneer's maximum Net Present Value in monopolistic period between a biotechnology start-up's and a pharmaceutical firm's entrance thresholds into a market regarding demand index as a random variable. As conclusion findings, the cost advantage is a critical competitive factor even at higher volatility for a biotechnology start-up to expand the monopolistic period and NPV.
机译：由于雷曼资本自雷曼冲击以来面临着重磅炸弹专利的专利壁垒和与非专利药物竞争的被许可方的风险资本对成熟制药公司的不愿和艰辛，对生物技术初创公司的投资最近创建了“虚拟生物技术初创公司”模型。 VBS模型是一种认购期权，因为预定的制药公司如果在概念验证方面获得成功，则拥有购买该初创企业的专有权利。一个研究问题是，对于生物技术初创企业来说，分别的最佳不可逆时机是什么，它们需要进行研发投资，然后对已经成立的制药公司进行许可以生存。生物技术初创企业被定义为一系列实物期权。期权博弈方法是实物期权与博弈论之间的一种集成方法，用于在不确定性下不可逆投资的灵活性和对竞争的先发制人之间进行最佳权衡。对待的是连续时间双寡头连续投资博弈模型。目的是分析将需求指数作为随机变量，在生物技术初创企业和制药公司进入市场的门槛之间的垄断期内，先驱者的最大净现值。结论结论是，即使在生物技术初创企业波动更大的情况下，其成本优势仍是关键的竞争因素，以扩大垄断期和净现值。

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