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Testing the Predictive Power of the Multifactorial Models for Assessing the Bankruptcy Risk

机译:测试用于评估破产风险的多因素模型的预测能力

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The bankruptcy prediction of the enterprises is a great interest issue, which has continued such attention to researchers and specialists for several decades. This paper evaluates the risk of bankruptcy of a sample of 20 enterprises acting in the construction sector in Romania, in 2008. The bankruptcy risk is evaluated using 3 models: 2 models very well-known at the international level (Altman model with 5 variables and Conan & Holder model) and a model created taking into account the specificity of the Romanian business environment: the model of determining the financial performance developed especially for features of the enterprises acting in the construction sector. The aim of this paper is to find a link or match between predictive power of the most used multifactorial models of bankruptcy risk, taking into account the period in which they were created, the specific characteristics of the economy and industry.
机译:企业的破产预测是一个很大的利益问题,几十年来一直引起研究人员和专家的关注。本文评估了2008年罗马尼亚20个从事建筑行业的企业样本的破产风险。破产风险的评估使用3种模型:2种在国际上非常知名的模型(具有5个变量的Altman模型和“柯南与霍德(Conan&Holder)模型”,并考虑到罗马尼亚商业环境的特殊性而创建的模型:确定财务绩效的模型特别针对建筑行业企业的特征而开发。本文的目的是找到最常用的破产风险多因素模型的预测能力之间的联系或匹配,同时考虑它们的创建时间,经济和行业的特定特征。

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