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Grey Assessment Model of Risks in Caused Factors of Ship Pilotage

机译：船舶引航因素的灰色风险评估模型

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A quantitative analysis of the importance of ship piloting risk factors has been carried out through the use of time series data.A Grey Relational Analysis Model on vessel piloting risk factors has been put forward with the application of Grey Relational Analysis Method.Moreover,fuzzy function is taken in the analysis of relative risk factors,achieving the optimal relational coefficient of piloting risk factors,and finally obtaining the relational degree taxis.As indicated in the computing result of the model,Grey Relational Analysis can ensure results that are more practical.The quantitative analysis of ship transporting risks is one of the most important research issues.In the last twenty years,with the development of science and technology,upsizing,specialization,and automation of ships as well as the fast development of the marine technology,like the technology of piloting enable the ship to resist some kinds of risks,meanwhile cause new risks such as ship control.At the same time,increasingly large amount of ship transportation and dangerous goods transport brings potential threat to marine safety and environment.To control or lower the risk of ship piloting,it is necessary to analyze and evaluate ship piloting factors.We need improve traditional frequency analysis to fred how to use time series data to analyze the relations between ship risks,and to search for new set.The system of ship transporting risk factors is very complex.Generally speaking,there are no simple physical or mathematical models on factors.The inner relations are fuzzy and uncertain.They correspond with Grey System in aspects of relation,degree,and data collection.So the ship transporting accident system is a Grey System.The theory of Grey System to a certain degree overcomes the inaccuracy of percentage analysis and the need of a large number of samples of mathematical statistics analysis.It requires smaller amount of sample statistics and lower accuracy of information.So while using the above methodology to analyze,it is necessary to employ the theory of Grey System to evaluate ship piloting risk factors to get best results through the quantitative analysis on ship piloting risk factors.
机译：利用时间序列数据对船舶引航危险因素的重要性进行了定量分析。结合灰色关联分析方法，提出了船舶引航危险因素的灰色关联分析模型。通过对相关风险因素的分析，获得最优的驾驶员风险因素的相关系数，最终得到相关度的滑行。如模型的计算结果所示，灰色关联分析可以保证结果的实用性。船舶运输风险的定量分析是最重要的研究课题之一。近二十年来，随着科学技术的发展，船舶的规模化，专业化，自动化以及海洋技术的飞速发展，如船舶，船舶等。引航技术使船舶能够抵御某些风险，同时又带来新的风险，例如船舶控制。越来越多的船舶运输和危险品运输给海洋安全和环境带来潜在威胁。为控制或降低船舶引航的风险，有必要对船舶引航因素进行分析和评估。使用时间序列数据来分析船舶风险之间的关系，并寻找新的风险集合。船舶运输风险因素的系统非常复杂。一般来讲，没有简单的物理或数学模型来分析风险因素。它们在关系，程度和数据收集等方面都与灰色系统相对应。因此，船舶运输事故系统是一个灰色系统。灰色系统理论在一定程度上克服了百分比分析的不精确性和较大的需求。数学统计分析的样本数，需要较少的样本统计量和较低的信息准确性，因此在使用ab时进行方法论分析，有必要运用灰色系统理论对船舶引航危险因素进行评估，通过对船舶引航危险因素的定量分析，得出最佳结果。

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