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首页> 外文会议>Collaborative management of integrated watersheds >CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN THE KAIDU RIVER BASIN, CHINA
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN THE KAIDU RIVER BASIN, CHINA

机译：气候变化对中国开都河流域水文极端的影响

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Changes in the hydrological systems are expected due to climate change resulting from enhanced greenhouse effect. The impact of climate change on the hydrological systems is needed to assess at local and regional scales since these changes are not uniform over the globe. The present study focuses on climate change impact on the hydrological extremes (e.g., high and low flows) during the 2050s over the region of the Kaidu River basin, Bayinbuluke, China. The high flow extreme determines the flooding event while the low flow extreme determines the drought event.rnIn this study, the future climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration) were estimated based on the results from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) for A2 and B1 IPCC (2007) emission scenarios. A statistical downscaling technique was applied to transfer the climate change signal from the grid-based climate model to the point-based meteorological station site. The projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological extremes were analysed with the generalised lump conceptual hydrological model, Veralemeend conceptual Hydrologisch Model (VHM) for the period of 2046 to 2065. The results were compared with a baseline period of 1979 to 1998. The results indicate that the severity of flood and drought will significantly increase due to climate change in this region. The paper describes different steps to estimate future climate variables towards an assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological systems of the case study area with the aid of a lump conceptual model.
机译：由于温室效应增强导致气候变化，预计水文系统将发生变化。需要在地方和区域范围内评估气候变化对水文系统的影响，因为这些变化在全球范围内并不统一。本研究的重点是2050年代中国巴音布鲁克的开都河流域地区的气候变化对极端水文（例如高流量和低流量）的影响。高流量极端事件决定洪水事件，低流量极端事件决定干旱事件。rn在本研究中，基于通用循环模型（GCM）的结果估算了未来的气候变量（例如降水，温度和潜在的蒸散量）。针对A2和B1 IPCC（2007）排放情景。应用了统计缩减技术，将气候变化信号从基于网格的气候模型传输到基于点的气象站站点。使用广义集概念水文模型Veralemeend概念水文模型（VHM）对2046年至2065年期间的气候变化影响进行了预测，并与1979年至1998年的基线期进行了比较。表明由于该地区的气候变化，洪水和干旱的严重性将大大增加。本文介绍了通过一个整体概念模型来估算未来气候变量的不同步骤，以评估气候变化对案例研究区水文系统的影响。

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