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首页> 外文会议>Flood Forecasting and Water Resources Assessment for IAHS(International Association of Hydrological Sciences)-PUB >Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Yerqiang River Basin
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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Yerqiang River Basin

机译：气候变化对二强流域水资源的影响

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The impact of climate change on water resources in Yerqiang River basin was investigated. The long-term trends of hydro-meteorological time-series were detected using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, and the impact of climate change on stream flow was analyzed by correlation analysis and stepwise regression. The results show that during the last 50 years the basin became warmer with an increase tendency of 0.3℃ per decade in the mountain areas, and the stream flow had a slight increase by 2% per decade. The correlation coefficient of temperature and runoff was greater than 0.6 in the flood period from June to September, as a result of the runoff generated from glacial melt water in the high mountain area. At the daily scale, a good linear multiple correlation between daily runoff and temperature of the last three days was found using stepwise regression, with the determination coefficient of 0.55. Coefficient of determination between runoff and temperature two days ago is 0.42.
机译：研究了气候变化对叶强河流域水资源的影响。使用非参数Mann-Kendall检验检测了水文气象时间序列的长期趋势，并通过相关分析和逐步回归分析了气候变化对水流的影响。结果表明，在过去的50年中，该盆地逐渐变暖，山区每十年增加0.3℃的趋势，溪流每十年略有增加2％。由于高山山区冰川融水产生的径流，6月至9月洪水期间温度与径流的相关系数大于0.6。在日尺度上，使用逐步回归发现每日径流与最近三天的温度之间存在良好的线性多重相关性，测定系数为0.55。两天前径流与温度之间的确定系数为0.42。

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