• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>The Fourth International Conference on Systems Science and Systems Engineering (ICSSSE'03); Nov 25-28, 2003; Hong Kong SAR, China >A STUDY ON FIRMS' OPTIMAL ADOPTION TIMING AND DIFFUSION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY UNDER MULTIPLE GENERATIONS OF FUTURE INNOVATIONS: A REAL OPTION ANALYZING APPROACH
【24h】

A STUDY ON FIRMS' OPTIMAL ADOPTION TIMING AND DIFFUSION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY UNDER MULTIPLE GENERATIONS OF FUTURE INNOVATIONS: A REAL OPTION ANALYZING APPROACH

机译：在多种未来创新下企业对新技术的最佳采用时机和扩散的研究：一种真实的选择分析方法

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In many real option literatures, only the market and technology status' threshold for firms to adopt the innovation has been dealt with. However, the relevant cumulative probability distribution function is required to analyze the diffusion of new technologies. This paper characterizes the arrival of technology innovations as a Poisson jump process. Under multiple future innovations and decreasing investment cost, firms' optimal investment strategies and diffusion of new technologies are studied. When analyzing two future technologies' circumstances and contrasting to the optimal investment strategies derived under the NPV rule, because the NPV approach ignores the real option value of firms' postponing investment, it is shown that the firms will just acquire sub-optimal decisions by the NPV approach. Numerical examples illustrate how firms' technology adoption behavior is affected by changes in the values of the speed of technology progress, the discount rate, the investment and the extent of investment decrease. Furthermore, this paper gives the calculating method of the latest time of firms' investment under infinite future technologies' circumstances. The model can be used to predict actual firms policies and provide powerful academic support for empirical analyzing of the firms' adoption behavior and the diffusion of new technologies.
机译：在许多实物期权文献中，仅涉及企业采用创新的市场和技术地位的门槛。但是，需要相关的累积概率分布函数来分析新技术的传播。本文将技术创新的到来描述为泊松跳跃过程。在未来的多种创新和降低的投资成本的情况下，研究了企业的最佳投资策略和新技术的传播。当分析两种未来技术的情况并与根据NPV规则得出的最优投资策略形成对比时，由于NPV方法忽略了企业推迟投资的实物期权价值，因此表明企业将仅通过以下方法获得次优决策： NPV方法。数值例子说明了技术进步速度，折现率，投资和投资范围减少的值的变化如何影响企业的技术采用行为。此外，本文给出了在未来技术无限的情况下企业最新投资时间的计算方法。该模型可用于预测实际的公司政策，并为对公司采用行为和新技术的传播进行实证分析提供有力的学术支持。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号