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首页> 外文会议>International conference on systems science and systems engineering >A STUDY ON FIRMS' OPTIMAL ADOPTION TIMING AND DIFFUSION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY UNDER MULTIPLE GENERATIONS OF FUTURE INNOVATIONS: A REAL OPTION ANALYZING APPROACH
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A STUDY ON FIRMS' OPTIMAL ADOPTION TIMING AND DIFFUSION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY UNDER MULTIPLE GENERATIONS OF FUTURE INNOVATIONS: A REAL OPTION ANALYZING APPROACH

机译：多世代未来创新下新技术的最佳采用时机及扩散研究：真正的选择分析方法

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摘要

In many real option literatures, only the market and technology status' threshold for firms to adopt the innovation has been dealt with. However, the relevant cumulative probability distribution function is required to analyze the diffusion of new technologies. This paper characterizes the arrival of technology innovations as a Poisson jump process. Under multiple future innovations and decreasing investment cost, firms' optimal investment strategies and diffusion of new technologies are studied. When analyzing two future technologies' circumstances and contrasting to the optimal investment strategies derived under the NPV rule, because the NPV approach ignores the real option value of firms' postponing investment, it is shown that the firms will just acquire sub-optimal decisions by the NPV approach. Numerical examples illustrate how firms' technology adoption behavior is affected by changes in the values of the speed of technology progress, the discount rate, the investment and the extent of investment decrease. Furthermore, this paper gives the calculating method of the latest time of firms' investment under infinite future technologies' circumstances. The model can be used to predict actual firms policies and provide powerful academic support for empirical analyzing of the firms' adoption behavior and the diffusion of new technologies.
机译：在许多实物期权文献中，只有市场和技术地位的企业采用了创新的门槛已经处理了。然而，需要相关的累积概率分布函数来分析新技术的扩散。本文表征的技术创新的到来为泊松过程。在多个未来的创新，降低投资成本，企业的最优投资策略和新技术的推广进行了研究。在分析两个未来技术的情况，并对比下，对净现值法则得出的最优投资策略，因为NPV方法忽略了公司的实物期权价值推迟投资，它表明该公司将通过刚刚获取的次优决策NPV方法。数值例子说明如何公司的技术采纳行为是由技术进步，贴现率，投资和投资下降的程度与速度的值变化的影响。此外，本文给出了公司的情况下的无限未来技术的投资的最后时间计算方法。该模型可以用来预测实际的企业政策，并为公司的采纳行为的实证研究和新技术的扩散强大的学术支持。

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