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NONLINEAR TESTS FOR THE STOCK MARKET INDEXES: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

机译:股票市场指数的非线性检验:来自中国的证据

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It is well recognized that any successful use of the powerful tools from dynamical systems theory in modeling financial time series is predicated upon establishing that the series is indeed nonlinear. We apply a battery of nonlinear tests to Shanghai Stock Index and Shenzhen Stock Index, both in Mainland China, to determine whether China stock indices are linear. In the way of a comparative study we also test for nonlinearity of the NASDAQ index.The empirical results based on all nonlinearity tests used in this paper reject the null hypothesis of linearity of the series. The presence of nonlinear patterns in the stock indices, however, does not provide information on whether the series are deterministic or stochastic.
机译:众所周知,在确定金融时间序列确实是非线性的基础上,成功地使用了动力学系统理论中的强大工具就可以建立金融时间序列的模型。我们对中国大陆的上海股票指数和深圳股票指数进行了一系列非线性测试,以确定中国股票指数是否为线性。通过比较研究,我们还测试了纳斯达克指数的非线性。本文基于所有非线性测试的经验结果拒绝了该系列线性的零假设。但是,股指中存在非线性模式并不能提供有关该序列是确定性还是随机性的信息。

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