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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Inter City Transportation (ICIT) Vol.2; Nov 5-7, 2002; Beijing >AN INTEGRATED INTERCITY TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL CONSIDERING INDUCED TRAVEL DEMAND FOR A NON-EXISTING HIGH-SPEED RAIL
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AN INTEGRATED INTERCITY TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL CONSIDERING INDUCED TRAVEL DEMAND FOR A NON-EXISTING HIGH-SPEED RAIL

机译：一种不存在的高速铁路考虑旅行需求的综合性旅行间需求模型

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摘要

As an important step of the planning of transportation project, recently, the building of analytical model with accurate assessment of the induced travel is paid more attentions for travel demand forecasting. According to the theoretical hypothesis of induced travel growth, improvements of accessibility or increases in transportation capacity of a specific rail corridor will attract more passengers and induce additional growth in travel demand. However, for the conventional 4-step method, it is difficult to measure the change in trip generation due to the generation model usually doesn't include the explanatory factors indicating the changes in the level of service. In this research, with the introduction of high speed rail (HSR) service planned in Japan, to identify the market potential for the HSR, an integrated intercity travel model with nested structure including trip generation model, destination choice model, mode choice model and route choice model is presented. Through using the expected utility (inclusive utility value) of lower level as explanatory variable in the higher level's utility function across all the levels, it is possible to reflect the behavioral effects of mode shifts, route shifts, redistribution of trips into the trip generation model with a theoretical consistence. Therefore, the travel demand which considering the travel induced from the advancement of accessibility could be estimated at a relatively precise level.
机译：作为交通项目规划的重要步骤，近来，对诱导出行的准确评估的分析模型的建立已成为出行需求预测的重点。根据诱导旅行增长的理论假设，特定铁路走廊的可达性或运输能力的提高将吸引更多的乘客，并导致旅行需求的进一步增长。但是，对于常规的4步方法，由于出行模型通常不包括指示服务水平变化的解释因素，因此很难测量出行产生的变化。在这项研究中，随着日本计划引入的高铁服务来确定高铁的市场潜力，这是一种具有嵌套结构的集成城际旅行模型，包括旅行生成模型，目的地选择模型，模式选择模型和路线提出了选择模型。通过将较低级别的预期效用（包含效用值）用作所有级别上级的效用函数中的解释变量，可以将模式转换，路线转换，行程重新分配的行为影响反映到行程生成模型中具有理论上的一致性。因此，考虑到由于可达性的提高而引起的出行的出行需求可以在相对精确的水平上估计。

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