首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management(PSAM7-ESREL'04) v.3; 20040614-20040618; Berlin; DE >The International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Fire Analysis, Sensitivity Studies for Critical Variables, and Necessary Areas of Additional Development
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The International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Fire Analysis, Sensitivity Studies for Critical Variables, and Necessary Areas of Additional Development

机译:国际空间站概率风险评估火灾分析,关键变量的敏感性研究以及需要进一步发展的领域

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摘要

The initial risk assessment of ISS fires concluded that fire does significantly contribute to the probability of LOV. A more critical look at the modeling assumptions and uncertainties suggested that if certain parameters and assumptions were adjusted, that fire could more significantly impact LOV, LOC, and EVAC. In particular, the probability of hull damage, the effects of hatch "drag-thrus", and the probability of fire propagation were evaluated. These studies suggest that more detailed analyses are required to determine if the actual probabilities are lower or higher than the critical values calculated to determine more conclusively if fire will be a risk driver for LOV, LOC and EVAC.
机译:ISS起火的初步风险评估得出结论,起火确实对LOV发生概率有重大贡献。对建模假设和不确定性的更批判性观察表明,如果对某些参数和假设进行了调整,则火灾可能会对LOV,LOC和EVAC产生更大的影响。特别是,评估了船体损坏的可能性,舱口“拖拽”的影响以及火势蔓延的可能性。这些研究表明,需要进行更详细的分析,以确定实际概率是否低于计算得出的临界值,以更确定地确定火灾是否会成为LOV,LOC和EVAC的风险驱动因素。

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