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Combining forecasts using recursive equal weighting and linear programming

机译:使用递归等权重和线性规划将预测结合起来

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Two combining methods, called recursive equal weighting (REW) and linear programming (LP), respectively, are introduced. Their forecasting performance is compared with other combining methods. The proposed REW method not only reaches a forecasting accuracy comparable to that of the theoretically optimal combining methods, but also provides some valuable insights into the methodology of combination, i.e., the combination of combined forecasts can further improve the forecasting performance. The occurrence of outliers is shown to lead to inaccuracy in the ordinary least squares (OLS) solution, while the proposed LP method can effectively eliminate their effects.
机译:介绍了两个组合方法,分别称为递归等加权(REW)和线性编程(LP)。将其预测性能与其他组合方法进行比较。所提出的REW方法不仅达到了与理论上最佳组合方法的预测精度相当,而且还提供了一些有价值的见解,还提供了一些有价值的见解,即组合的方法,即组合预测的组合可以进一步提高预测性能。出现异常值的发生导致普通的最小二乘(OLS)解决方案中的不准确,而所提出的LP方法可以有效地消除它们的效果。

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