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首页> 外文会议>Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists >ESTIMATING ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CONTROLLED RELEASE FERTILISERS IN SUGARCANE SYSTEMS: AN ECONOMIC RISK CASE STUDY ANALYSIS
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ESTIMATING ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CONTROLLED RELEASE FERTILISERS IN SUGARCANE SYSTEMS: AN ECONOMIC RISK CASE STUDY ANALYSIS

机译：估算控释肥料在甘蔗系统中的经济影响：经济风险案例研究分析

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摘要

an economic risk framework for assessing economic impacts of adopting controlled release nitrogen fertilisers (CRFs) is presented, taking into account variable climatic and economic conditions. Specifically, economic impacts of switching from urea tovarious CRF products are assessed by comparing: 1) average economic returns, 2) economic returns in good years, represented by highest returns with a cumulative probability (CVaROoss), and 3) big losses in bad years, represented by lowest returns with acumulative probability (CVaRo.os) across alternative fertilisers. The risk framework is underpinned by a modelling approach that integrates agricultural production system simulation modelling (APSIM), probability theory, Monte Carlo simulation, financial-risk analysis techniques and threshold analysis. The analysis is carried out in a specific case study in the wet tropics, Queensland for one soil type and sugarcane management system as a first analysis to identify economic issues that may arise with adoption of CRFs. Results show that yield responses to fertiliser inputs are highly variable with variable climate. The potential for profitable adoption of CRFs is largely influenced by the relative cost of CRFs compared with the cost of urea. At equal cost, CRFs would likely realise higher average net returns and higher returns in both good and bad years than conventional fertilisers thereby improving the overall economic viability of agricultural enterprises. If, however, the cost of CRF was at least twice the cost of conventional fertilisers, adoption of CRFs would likely result in reduced average net returns and lower returns in bad years, thereby increasing the downside economic risk. A blend of CRFs and urea performs better than urea and CRFs in good years at N rates between 60 and 150 kg N/ha, indicating that additional yield gains from switching to a blend could offset additional costs, assuming CRFs cost twice as much as urea. At twice the cost of urea, profitable adoption of CRFs is only achievable in a scenario where half as much CRFs as urea are applied to get the same yield. The likelihood of this occurring is low under our specific case study climate, soil and management system scenario, but would likely be higher in high yield climate,soil and management system case study scenarios. Overall, net returns from sugarcane are sensitive to variable sugar prices, yields, and harvesting and fertiliser costs. Changes in a number of factors could make adoption of CRFs more economically and environmentally attractive. These include: 1) consistent growth in the cost of conventional fertilisers, 2) steady technological advances in the performance and efficiency of CRFs, 3) reduction in CRF production costs and future costs for CRFs and 4) increasing demand for CRFs as a possible solution for mitigating N loss to sensitive coastal and marine ecosystems. The next step is to extend this analysis to different regions with different climate, soil types, and management systems to identify combinations of factors under which profitable adoption of CRFs is likely.
机译：提出了评估采用控释氮肥（CRF）的经济影响的经济风险框架，考虑到可变气候和经济条件。具体而言，通过比较：1）经济申报表，2）多年来的经济回报的评估评估了尿素对近年的经济影响，由累积概率（CVarooss）和3）糟糕较大的损失所代表，通过替代肥料的最低回报（CVARO.OS）表示。风险框架是由一种建模方法基础，集成了农业生产系统仿真建模（APSIM），概率理论，蒙特卡罗模拟，财务风险分析技术和阈值分析。该分析是在昆士兰州湿热带的特定情况研究中进行，为一种土壤型和甘蔗管理系统，作为第一次分析，以确定采用CRF的经济问题。结果表明，对肥料输入的产量反应具有可变气候的高度变化。与尿素成本相比，CRF的有利可图采用的潜力主要受到CRF的相对成本的影响。以等同的成本，CRF可能会实现比常规肥料的良好和糟糕的年份更高的平均净返回和更高的回报，从而提高了农业企业的整体经济可行性。然而，如果CRF的成本至少是常规肥料成本的两倍，则可能导致降低平均净收回和较低年度的净收回，从而提高了下行的经济风险。 CRFS和尿素的混合物在60至150公斤N / HA之间的N个速率下比尿素和CRF更好，表明从切换到混合物的额外收益率可以抵消额外的成本，假设CRFS成本是尿素的两倍。尿素成本的两倍，盈利采用CRF在一个场景中才能实现，其中一半作为尿素的CRF被应用以获得相同的产量。在我们的特定案例研究气候，土壤和管理系统情景下，这一发生的可能性低，但在高产气候，土壤和管理系统案例研究方案中可能会更高。总体而言，甘蔗的净回报对可变糖价，产量和收获和肥料成本敏感。多种因素的变化可以通过更经济和环境吸引力的CRF。这些包括：1）常规肥料成本的一致增长，2）CRF的性能和效率的稳定技术进步，3）CRF生产成本和CRF的未来成本和4）对CRF的需求提高了可能的解决方案用于减轻敏感沿海和海洋生态系统的损失。下一步是将该分析扩展到具有不同气候，土壤类型和管理系统的不同地区，以确定可能的因素的组合可能。

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