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Seismic hazard from low frequency-high impact fault activities using probabilistic scenario earthquakes

机译:低频高冲击断层活动在概率情景地震中的地震危险

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The applicability of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to low frequency range is discussed through the results of a case study for Kobe by using the concept of probabilistic scenario earthquakes and contribution factors from corresponding seismic sources. On this basis, data and the conditions inevitable for such an application are summarized. In summary, the active fault data are indispensable to the future seismic hazard assessment because the Kobe Earthquake cannot be identified as an earthquake of precaution either in the deterministic or probabilistic manner when only the historical earthquake data are used. In addition, we should consider the return period in the order of 1,000 years, not in 100 years, for such a "low frequency-high impact seismic event."
机译:通过使用概率情景地震的概念和来自相应地震源的贡献因子,通过神户案例研究的结果,讨论了概率地震灾害分析在低频范围中的适用性。在此基础上,总结了这种应用所不可避免的数据和条件。综上所述,活动断层数据对于将来的地震危险性评估是必不可少的,因为仅使用历史地震数据时,不能以确定性或概率性方式将神户地震确定为预防性地震。此外,对于这样的“低频-高冲击地震事件”,我们应该考虑返回周期为1000年,而不是100年。

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