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Integrating faults and past earthquakes into a probabilistic seismic hazard model for peninsular Italy

机译：将故障和地震集成到半岛意大利概率地震危险模型中

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Italy is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe. Moderate to strong earthquakes, with magnitudes of up to similar to 7, have been historically recorded for many active faults. Currently, probabilistic seismic hazard assessments in Italy are mainly based on area source models, in which seismicity is modelled using a number of seismotectonic zones and the occurrence of earthquakes is assumed uniform. However, in the past decade, efforts have increasingly been directed towards using fault sources in seismic hazard models to obtain more detailed and potentially more realistic patterns of ground motion. In our model, we used two categories of earthquake sources. The first involves active faults, and using geological slip rates to quantify the seismic activity rate. We produced an inventory of all fault sources with details of their geometric, kinematic, and energetic properties. The associated parameters were used to compute the total seismic moment rate of each fault. We evaluated the magnitudefrequency distribution (MFD) of each fault source using two models: a characteristic Gaussian model centred at the maximum magnitude and a truncated Gutenberg-Richter model. The second earthquake source category involves grid-point seismicity, with a fixed-radius smoothed approach and a historical catalogue were used to evaluate seismic activity. Under the assumption that deformation is concentrated along faults, we combined the MFD derived from the geometry and slip rates of active faults with the MFD from the spatially smoothed earthquake sources and assumed that the smoothed seismic activity in the vicinity of an active fault gradually decreases by a fault-size-driven factor. Additionally, we computed horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Although the ranges and gross spatial distributions of the expected accelerations obtained here are comparable to those obtained through methods involving seismic catalogues an
机译：意大利是欧洲最热心的国家之一。在历史上记录了许多积极的历史记录，迄今为止，迄今为止，中等到强大的地震，历史上升了。目前，意大利的概率地震危害评估主要基于面积源模型，其中使用多种地震区建模地震性，并且地震的发生是均匀的。然而，在过去的十年中，努力越来越多地针对地震危险模型中的故障来源来获得更详细和潜在的地面运动模式。在我们的模型中，我们使用了两类地震来源。第一个涉及有源故障，并利用地质滑速量化地震活动率。我们制作了所有故障来源的库存，其几何，运动和精力充沛的属性。相关参数用于计算每个故障的总震动量速率。我们使用两种型号评估每个故障源的大小频道分布（MFD）：以最大幅度和截断的古腾居民模型为中心的特征高斯模型。第二地震源类涉及网格点地震性，固定半径平滑方法，历史目录用于评估地震活动。在假设变形沿着故障中集中，我们将来自几何形状的MFD与来自空间平滑的地震源的MFD的MFD组合起来，并假设活性故障附近的平滑地震活动逐渐减少断层尺寸驱动因子。此外，我们计算了返回时间为475和2475年的水平峰接地加速度（PGA）地图。尽管这里获得的预期加速的范围和总空间分布与通过涉及地震目录的方法获得的那些相当

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