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Strategic Analysis of Competitive Markets: A Case Study for the Narrowbody Market

机译：竞争市场的战略分析：以窄体市场为例

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Commercial aircraft developments are major endeavours which strain considerably the resources of original equipment manufacturers. Beyond these financial strains, the development programs represent huge bets for the companies due to the fixed assumptions made when business plans are conceived and the abundance of uncertainties both at the technical and market levels. Standard methods used for capital budgeting are not well suited to account for uncertainty and fail to capture the dynamic nature of markets and the erosion of leadership positions over time. The on-going research tries to overcome some of these challenges by proposing a game-theoretic based method that helps substantiate aircraft development strategies. Assessing the value of aircraft development strategies is both a complex and tedious task due to the uncertain environment and long forecasting periods. Existing methods do not always capture the problem in its entirety and usually over-simplify it by using generic customers and generic flight routes. Besides, these methods usually fail to account for lost opportunities and for the sale diffusion process during the early lives of new aircraft. A method is proposed to carry out the valuation of strategies while accounting for some of the challenges identified. The analysis is applied to large commercial aircraft developments and investigates strategy selection in a competitive environment.
机译：商用飞机的发展是主要的努力，这极大地消耗了原始设备制造商的资源。除了这些财务压力之外，由于在制定业务计划时做出的固定假设以及技术和市场层面的大量不确定性，开发计划对公司来说是巨大的赌注。用于资本预算的标准方法不太适合解决不确定性问题，并且无法及时了解市场的动态性质和领导地位的下降。正在进行的研究试图通过提出一种基于博弈论的方法来帮助证实飞机的发展策略来克服这些挑战。由于不确定的环境和较长的预测期，评估飞机发展战略的价值既是一项繁琐又繁琐的任务。现有方法并不总是能完整地抓住问题，并且通常会通过使用通用客户和通用飞行路线来过度简化该问题。此外，这些方法通常无法解决新飞机早期生命周期中失去的机会和销售扩散过程。提出了一种在评估所面临挑战的同时进行战略评估的方法。该分析适用于大型商用飞机的开发，并研究了竞争环境下的战略选择。

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