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Photovoltaic output power chaotic characteristic and trend prediction based on the actual measurement data

机译：基于实际测量数据的光伏输出功率混沌特性及趋势预测

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Based on the nonlinear dynamic modeling of photovoltaic power generation system output time sequences, parsing the kinetic characteristics of the output power of photovoltaic power generation system, the chaos characteristics of the photovoltaic power generation system output power is put forward. According to the phase space reconstruction theory, adding weight first order local prediction method is used for photovoltaic output power chaotic prediction. The actual measurement data of the output power acquired from the photovoltaic power generation system of a printing plant roof is used to verify the prediction method. Results show that the photovoltaic power generation system output power has chaotic characteristics, and it is feasible that the chaos prediction method apply to photovoltaic output power prediction, the method has a high accuracy for photovoltaic power ultra-short term prediction, it provide a new way for photovoltaic output power prediction.
机译：基于光伏发电系统输出时间序列的非线性动态建模，通过分析光伏发电系统输出功率的动力学特性，提出了光伏发电系统输出功率的混沌特性。根据相空间重构理论，将加权加权一阶局部预测方法用于光伏输出功率混沌预测。从印刷厂屋顶的光伏发电系统获取的输出功率的实际测量数据用于验证预测方法。结果表明，光伏发电系统的输出功率具有混沌特性，将混沌预测方法应用于光伏输出功率预测是可行的，该方法对光伏功率超短期预测具有较高的精度，为光伏发电的超短期预测提供了一种新的思路。用于光伏输出功率预测。

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