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首页> 外文会议>IAEE international conference;International Association for Energy Economics >POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CARBON PRICING POLICIES: EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF COUNTRIES
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POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CARBON PRICING POLICIES: EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF COUNTRIES

机译：碳定价政策的政治经济：来自一组国家的证据

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OverviewAn economy-wide price of carbon (as well as other Greenhouse Gases) has long been advocated as a cost-effective way of inducing reductions in CO_2 (or other GHG) emissions. Yet, the coverage of carbon-pricing schemes (i.e. taxes based on the carbon content of a fuel or Emissions Trading Schemes) was for a long time relatively modest compared to global GHG-emissions. This changed with the introduction of the EU-ETS in (originally) 25 countries and the development of new schemes in other jurisdictions in subsequent years.Nonetheless, in many of those countries, the price of carbon remains below the most conservative estimates of the social cost of carbon. Moreover, a closer inspection of the implemented schemes shows that coverage (i.e. regulated emissions as a share of total GHG emissions) is, in all cases, partial and, in most cases, modest (the highest coverage is found in Quebec in 2015 – 85%).Hence, the economy-wide price signal is significantly less strong than what might initially appear. We therefore propose an effective (explicit) carbon price, (ECP) that is a coverage-weighted price, as a more appropriate measure of the strength of the price signal created by a carbon pricing scheme in any given year. We construct this metric for all jurisdictions with carbon-pricing.Next, we use this measure to shed light on the dynamics driving carbon-pricing policies. In particular, the present paper aims to provide a political economy explanation for the observed gap between actual (effective) and socially optimal carbon prices. The analysis examines the relationship between effective carbon prices and political and economic characteristics in an international panel of [191] countries/jurisdictions over the period 1990- 2012. In addition, specific attention is dedicated to the role of the electricity supply industry in influencing the level of the effective carbon price.We argue that the process leading to any level of carbon pricing has two sequential stages, with the first stage to decide whether to introduce carbon pricing policy followed by a decision on the level.The paper is organised as follows. The first section briefly introduces the reader to carbon pricing mechanism principle and developments. Section 2 reviews three relevant strands of literature. Section 3 briefly discusses carbon pricing (in theory and practice) and introduces the concept of Effective Carbon Price. Section 4 presents the hypotheses and data. Section 5 discusses the empirical methodology used in the analysis and the results. Section 6 concludes.MethodsIn line with the assumption that carbon pricing policy is a two-stage process, we adopt a two-stage empirical approach in which we first analyse the dynamics driving the decision to implement a carbon pricing scheme and, subsequently, the factors influencing the scheme’s price level.Both stages involve panel regression analysis. The first one is a logit/probit regression whereas the second one is standard panel analysis. We use heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors and investigate whether the results are consistent across the use of both (country-) fixed and random effects. Our dependent variable is the constructed effective carbon price and our explanatory variables can be grouped into three categories: political and institutional factors, economic, and electricity-market.ResultsFirst, with the exception of Sweden, none of the jurisdictions has an ECP that comes near to the (even most conservative) estimate of the social cost of carbon. Besides, contrary to what theoretical results recommend, there is no consistent increase in the ECP over time in any of the countries considered.The odds of having a form of market-based carbon pricing mechanism in a country at a given point in time are positively influenced by the following factors: GDP per capita, the level of Democracy as well as membership of the European Union. The share of industry in a jurisdiction’s GDP, however, negatively affects it. The influence of the energy mix on the probability of occurrence of a carbon pricing mechanism is more complex. While the share of electricity (% of total) produced from coal does not appear to significantly influence the probability of existence of such a scheme, the share of electricity produced from gas and oil negatively affects the chances of having such a scheme in place.Turning to the analysis of the ECP, we observe that GDP per capita positively influences its level. Hence, not only does a higher level of economic development increase the probability of having a carbon pricing mechanism but also increases its level. Furthermore, EU membership increases the ECP by about $3.2 to $4 /t CO_2e (2014 dollars). The value added share of industry negatively affects the effective carbon price. Its impact is in the range of -0.05 to -0.06, indicating that a one-percentage point addition to the share of industry in a jurisdiction’s GDP reduces the ECP by $0.05 to $0.06/tCO_2e (2014 dollars). The share of electricity produced by fossil fuels (either coal, gas or oil) does not significantly influence the level of the ECP.ConclusionsThe present study sheds light on key political economy factors explaining the presence and level of carbon pricing across the globe. At a time where several countries are implementing (or have recently implemented) such schemes, accurate understanding of these factors is of the essence. Our study shows that none of the countries introduced an economy-wide carbon price: carbon pricing has been progressive and started with the sectors least subject to carbon leakage. In addition, results show that the political and economic environment plays an important role in the introduction of carbon pricing schemes. Taken together, these results bear significant implications for future carbon pricing policies development.
机译：概述 长期以来，一直提倡在整个经济范围内使用碳（以及其他温室气体）价格作为减少CO_2（或其他温室气体）排放量的一种经济有效的方法。然而，与全球温室气体排放相比，碳定价计划（即基于燃料碳含量的税或排放权交易计划）的覆盖范围在很长一段时间内相对较小。随着（最初）25个国家引入EU-ETS以及随后几年在其他辖区开发新计划，这种情况发生了变化。 尽管如此，在许多国家中，碳价仍低于对碳的社会成本的最保守估计。此外，对已实施计划的仔细检查表明，在所有情况下，覆盖率（即，受控排放量占温室气体总排放量的百分比）在任何情况下都是局部的，在大多数情况下是适度的（2015年魁北克省覆盖率最高）– 85 ％）。 因此，整个经济范围内的价格信号远没有最初显示的那么强劲。因此，我们提出了一个有效的（明确的）碳价格（ECP），它是一种覆盖率加权价格，作为对任何给定年份的碳定价方案所产生的价格信号强度的更恰当的度量。我们使用碳定价为所有辖区构建此指标。 接下来，我们将使用此方法来阐明推动碳定价政策的动力。特别是，本文旨在为观察到的实际（有效）碳价与社会最优碳价之间的差距提供政治经济学解释。该分析研究了1990年至2012年期间由[191]个国家/地区组成的国际小组中有效碳价与政治和经济特征之间的关系。此外，还特别关注了供电行业在影响碳交易中的作用。有效碳价水平。 我们认为，导致任何水平的碳定价的过程都有两个连续的阶段，第一个阶段决定是否引入碳定价政策，然后再决定该水平。 本文的组织如下。第一部分向读者简要介绍碳定价机制的原理和发展。第2节回顾了文学的三个相关方面。第三部分简要讨论了碳定价（在理论和实践上），并介绍了有效碳价格的概念。第4节介绍了假设和数据。第5节讨论了分析和结果中使用的经验方法。第六节总结。 方法 根据碳定价政策是一个两阶段过程的假设，我们采用了一个两阶段的经验方法，在该方法中，我们首先分析驱动决定实施碳定价计划的动力，然后分析影响该计划价格的因素。等级。 这两个阶段都涉及面板回归分析。第一个是对数/概率回归，而第二个是标准面板分析。我们使用异方差性和自相关一致的标准误差，并研究在使用（国家/地区）固定和随机效应时结果是否一致。我们的因变量是构建的有效碳价，我们的解释变量可以分为三类：政治和体制因素，经济和电力市场。 结果 首先，除瑞典外，没有哪个司法管辖区的ECP接近（甚至是最保守的）碳社会成本估算值。此外，与理论结果所建议的相反，在任何考虑的国家中，ECP都不随着时间的推移而持续增加。 一个国家在给定的时间点采用某种形式的基于市场的碳定价机制的几率受到以下因素的积极影响：人均GDP，民主水平以及欧盟成员资格。但是，行业在一个辖区GDP中所占的份额对其产生了负面影响。能源混合对碳定价机制发生概率的影响更为复杂。虽然煤炭生产的电力份额（占总发电量的百分比）似乎并未显着影响该方案的存在可能性，但天然气和石油生产的电力份额却对实施该方案的机会产生了负面影响。 转向对ECP的分析，我们发现人均GDP对其水平产生积极影响。因此，更高水平的经济发展不仅会增加采用碳定价机制的可能性，而且还会提高其定价水平。此外，欧盟成员国将ECP的价格提高了约3.2美元至4美元/吨CO_2e（2014年美元）。行业的增加值份额对有效碳价格产生负面影响。影响范围是-0.05到-0.06，表明该行业的GDP所占比重提高了1个百分点，则ECP降低了0.05美元，降至0.06美元/吨CO_2e（2014年美元）。化石燃料（煤炭，天然气或石油）产生的电力份额不会显着影响ECP的水平。 结论 本研究揭示了解释全球碳定价存在和水平的关键政治经济因素。在几个国家正在实施（或最近实施）此类计划的时候，对这些因素的准确理解至关重要。我们的研究表明，没有一个国家采用全经济范围的碳价格：碳定价是渐进式的，并且始于碳泄漏最少的部门。此外，结果表明，政治和经济环境在引入碳定价计划中起着重要作用。综上所述，这些结果对未来碳定价政策的发展具有重要意义。

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