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首页> 外文会议>Business and Information Management, 2008. ISBIM '08 >An Analysis of Forecasting Model of Crude Oil Demand Based on Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VEC)
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An Analysis of Forecasting Model of Crude Oil Demand Based on Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VEC)

机译：基于协整和矢量误差校正模型（VEC）的原油需求预测模型分析

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This paper establishes a cointegration and vector error correction model to forecast the crude oil demand in China after analyzing main factors affecting crude oil demand. The model proves that GDP, population, the share of industrial sector in GDP and the oil price are the main factors influencing crude oil demand. Especially population and the share of industrial sector make significance influences on crude oil demand, since the large-scale population, ever-increasing living standard and fast industrialization in China in the past thirty years. After implementing ex post forecast which implies that the cointegration and vector error correction model that established before fits the demand trend very well, the paper forecasts Chinapsilas crude oil demand from 2008-2020 using the model. The forecast indicates that the demand will be as great as 0.599 billion tons in 2020, which means that China will encounter more and more serious energy problems, for which some suggestions are proposed to policy-makers.
机译：本文建立了一个协整和向量纠错模型，以预测中国原油需求分析影响原油需求的主要因素。该模型证明了GDP，人口，GDP中的工业部门的份额以及油价是影响原油需求的主要因素。特别是人口和产业部门的份额对原油需求的影响作出意义，自过去三十年来中国的大规模人口，不断增长的生活标准和快速工业化。实施前预测后意味着在符合需求趋势之前建立的协整和向量误差校正模型，本文从2008 - 2020使用模型预测了Chinapsilas原油需求。预测表明，2020年需求将在0.599亿吨，这意味着中国将遇到越来越严重的能源问题，为决策者提出了一些建议。

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