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首页> 外文会议>International Conference of the System Dynamics Society >How to cope with the European migrant crisis? Exploring the effects of the migrant influx in Bayern, Germany
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How to cope with the European migrant crisis? Exploring the effects of the migrant influx in Bayern, Germany

机译：如何应对欧洲移民危机？探索移民涌入在德国拜仁的影响

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摘要

Recently, Germany has experienced a huge influx of migrants. Most of these migrants enter Germany through the federal state of Bayern. The asylum procedure in Bayern has various bottlenecks at which migrants accumulate. This accumulation causes a lot of problems and increases local tensions, which in turn affects citizens and policy makers in both Bayern and the rest of Germany. This paper presents a system dynamics model with the purpose of identifying these bottlenecks and understanding their influence on the tensions among local citizens. In addition, it proposes a few policy measures which can streamline the process and thereby reduce tensions in Bayern. According to our findings, the biggest problems are caused by the slow outflow of migrants waiting in initial aid facilities for a more permanent residence to become available. The policy suggestions we propose performed robust under a wide range of parameter values. Moreover, they were able to reduce the average tension level by a factor of almost two.
机译：最近，德国经历了巨大的移民涌入。这些移民的大多数进入德国通过拜仁联邦州。拜仁的庇护程序有各种移民积累的瓶颈。这种积累会导致大量问题并增加当地紧张局势，这反过来又影响了拜仁和德国其他地区的公民和决策者。本文介绍了一个系统动态模型，目的是识别这些瓶颈并了解他们对当地公民之间紧张局势的影响。此外，它还提出了一些可以简化过程的政策措施，从而减少拜仁的紧张局势。根据我们的调查结果，最大的问题是由初始援助设施等待的移民缓慢流出，以便更加永久居住地获得。我们提出的策略建议在广泛的参数值下对其进行了稳健。此外，它们能够将平均张力水平降低到几乎两个尺寸。

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