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The Pulse Economy in the Mid-1990s: A Review of Global and Regional Developments

机译:20世纪90年代中期的脉冲经济:对全球和区域发展的审查

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The world pulse economy seems to have stagnated during the first half of the 1990s after going through a contraction during the 1970s caused by the Green Revolution, and an expansion during the 1980s fuelled by changes in the European Community's (EC)Common Agricultural Policies (CAP) which favored production of pulses for feed. In 1996 world production stood at 57 million MT on 70.5 million ha with an average yield of 809 kg/ha. However, recent vast cutbacks by the Commonwealth of Independent States (former USSR) and reductions in EC feed production following the 1992 CAP reforms in 1993 have been offset by a sustained upward trend in Africa and a remarkable expansion in South Asia. Developing countries produce 71% of the world's pulses. India remains the largest pulse producer with 27% of world production. Trade in pulses has increased to 14% of world production. This encompasses all pulses and regions, suggesting that trade barriers are being reduced. Imports are still concentrated in Europe, while the most important exporters are Canada, France, China, USA, and Myanmar. The latter has emerged as the largest supplier to South Asia, which it shares with inter-seasonal exports from Australia. Two-thirds of all pulses is used for food, mostly indeveloping countries, while about one quarter is used for feed, mostly in Europe, CIS, and Oceania (Australia). Since 1980-82, per capita food consumption of pulses declined by 6% in developing countries where relative prices of pulses have gone up whileconsumption of animal protein is increasing. But developed countries increased their food pulse consumption by 2.3%, if from a low base level. Price data for pulses remain sketchy. In India, the largest consumer, prices have increased relative to otherfoods, pushing pulse protein out of the average diet. Declining amounts of pulse protein in developing country diets do not necessarily indicate protein deficiencies, but to a paucity of technological progress in production relative to advances in production of animal protein such as milk and poultry, which have brought down the relative prices of these foods. The same observation, coupled with a relatively strong negative price elasticity of demand for pulses, suggests that there is a significant unmetdemand for pulses in developing countries which will not be satisfied at prevailing (high) prices. Yield variability remains a challenge to a constant, abundant supply at low and stable prices. As most of the food pulses are produced and consumed in developing countries, the limitations to higher and more stable yields need to be addressed, and multi-objective frameworks of farm families need to be taken into account when developing improved cultivars and production methods.The future of the pulse economy depends on social, dietary, economic, environmental, and infrastructural factors some of which are predictable in the process of economic growth while others — such as government interventions and scientific breakthroughsor competing crops or protein sources — are highly unpredictable and could rapidly change the supply or demand situation.
机译:世界脉冲经济在20世纪70年代在绿色革命造成的萎缩之后,在20世纪70年代的萎缩之后,世界脉冲经济似乎已经停滞不前,并在20世纪80年代推动了欧洲共同体(EC)普通农业政策的变化(CAP )这有利于生产饲料的脉冲。 1996年世界生产总额为70505万公顷,平均收益率为809公斤/公顷。然而,1992年1992年关于1993年关于1992年关于1992年第1992章改革之后的独立国家(前USSR)和EC饲料产量减少的巨大削减已经抵消了非洲的持续上行趋势,南亚的持续增长趋势和南亚的巨大趋势。发展中国家产生了71%的世界脉冲。印度仍然是最大的脉冲生产商,占世界生产的27%。脉冲贸易增加到世界生产的14%。这包括所有脉冲和地区,表明贸易壁垒正在减少。进口仍然集中在欧洲,而最重要的出口商是加拿大,法国,中国,美国和缅甸。后者已成为南亚最大的供应商,它与澳大利亚的季节性出口股份。所有脉冲的三分之二用于食物,大多数不发发的国家,而大约一季度用于饲料,主要是欧洲,CIS和大洋洲(澳大利亚)。自1980-82以来,发展中国家的脉冲人均脉冲消耗下降了6%,其中脉冲的相对价格上涨了动物蛋白质的含量增加。但如果从低基础水平,发达国家的食物脉冲消耗将增加2.3%。脉冲的价格数据保持粗略。在印度,最大的消费者,价格相对于其他食品增加,推动脉冲蛋白的平均饮食。发展中国家饮食中的脉冲蛋白量的减少不一定表明蛋白质缺陷,而是缺乏生产的技术进步,相对于生产牛奶和家禽等动物蛋白质的进步,这已经带来了这些食物的相对价格。与对脉冲的需求的相对强劲的负价格弹性相同,相同的观察表明,发展中国家的脉冲有一个重要的未受组织,这将不满足于普遍(高)价格。屈服可变性仍然是持续,丰富的价格,价格低且稳定的价格仍然是挑战。由于大多数食物脉冲在发展中国家产生和消费,需要解决更高且稳定的收益率的局限性,并且在制定改善的品种和生产方法时需要考虑农场家庭的多目标框架。脉冲经济的未来取决于社会,饮食,经济,环境和基础设施因素,其中一些在经济增长过程中可预测,而其他人 - 例如政府干预和科学突破性竞争作物或蛋白质来源 - 是非常不可预测的迅速改变供需情况。

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