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Homogeneous Dynamical Systems and the Age-Structured SIR Model with Proportionate Mixing Incidence

机译:具有比例混合发病率的均匀动态系统和年龄结构的SIR模型

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The simplest model of a population is Malthus model. It states that the rate of change of the number of individuals in a population is proportional to the number of individuals so that populations modeled by this law grow or decay exponentially. Malthus model describes an unstructured population, that is a population in which individuals are not distinguishable. Models for structured populations may also display an overall exponential behavior. This is the case with the Lotka-McKendrick model for age-structured populations, where the so called persistent solutions occur, namely solutions that can be expressed as a product of a function of age (the stable distribution) and an exponentially growing function of time. The Lotka-McKendrick model has played an important role in demography, due to its simplicity and relatively good fit to data on a short time scale. Consequently, it remains the preferred theoretical paradigm in the study of human demography. The Malthus and the Lotka-McKendrick models are, however, linear. Usually non-linear population models are designed to avoid unlimited growth. In fact, through non-linear rates, it is possible to introduce those mechanisms that, in nature, produce containment of the population size.
机译:最简单的人口模型是马尔萨斯模型。它指出,人口中的个人数量的变化率与个人数量成正比,使本法建模的人群成长或衰减。马尔萨斯模型描述了一个非结构化的人口,这是一个人的人口无法区分。结构化群体的模型也可能显示整体指数行为。这是针对年龄结构群体的Lotka-McKendRick模型的情况,其中所谓的持久解决方案发生,即可以表示为年龄(稳定分布)函数的产品的解决方案和时间越来越长的时间。 Lotka-McKendrick模型在人口摄影中发挥了重要作用,因为它的简单性和对短时间规模的数据相对较好。因此,它仍然是人口统计学研究中的优选理论范式。然而,Malthus和Lotka-McKendrick模型是线性的。通常,非线性群体模型旨在避免无限增长。事实上,通过非线性速率,可以将这些机制引入本质上产生填充群体大小。

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