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首页> 外文会议>Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering >Resource Capacity Estimation Using Lognormal Power Density from Producing Fields and Area from Resource Conceptual Models; Advantages, Pitfalls and Remedies
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Resource Capacity Estimation Using Lognormal Power Density from Producing Fields and Area from Resource Conceptual Models; Advantages, Pitfalls and Remedies

机译：资源容量估计使用资源概念模型产生字段和面积的逻辑正态功率密度;优点，陷阱和补救措施

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The power density method for estimating potential power generation capacity of geothermal exploration prospects is recommended because it is relatively simple, case histories have been graphically compiled to support parameter estimates, and its pitfalls are more easily appreciated than is the case for many alternatives. In this implementation, a lognormal probability density function (PDF) for capacity in MW is obtained by multiplying two lognormal PDFs, one for interpreted resource area in km~2 and one for power density in MW/km~2. The PDF for the interpreted area of the resource is estimated by constructing a range of geothermal resource conceptual models called the P10, P50 and P90 models representative of the 10, 50 and 90 percentiles of the cumulative distribution function that are commonly used in resource assessment. The conceptual models integrate available geoscience data in a manner consistent with hydro-thermodynamics and their range should consider both both data and conceptual uncertainty. The cumulative distribution function for power density can be estimated from the Wilmarth and Stimac graphical compilation of worldwide geothermal field power density versus resource temperature, categorized by conceptual setting. This approach shares many of the problems of other geothermal resource assessment methods but its simplicity often makes recognizing pitfalls more likely and mitigating them more tractable. For example, one issue with this implementation is its potentially inconsistent area estimates. Because updated conceptual models are not published for most geothermal fields, the power densities are based on areas estimated from the perimeter of the drilled production zones, not from conceptual models. Comparisons of conceptually relevant details from roughly analogous fields can provide a consistency check on power density and on decision tree cases used to provide weighted economics of realistic developments. This approach is implemented in an Excel workbook that has been widely used for training courses and economic decision-making in the geothermal industry. It is available from the author as freeware subject to users' reference to this paper in initial publications of projects that utilize it.
机译：推荐用于估算地热勘探前景潜在发电能力的功率密度方法，因为它相对简单，案例历史被图形地编译以支持参数估计，并且其陷阱比许多替代方案更容易欣赏。在该实现中，通过将两个Lognormal PDF乘以MW的逻辑正式PDF来获得用于MW的容量的Lognormal概率密度函数（PDF），用于KM〜2中的解释资源区域，一个用于MW / Km〜2中的功率密度。通过构造一种名为10,50和90百分比的累积分布函数的P10，P50和P90模型的一系列地热资源概念模型来估计资源的解释区域的PDF。概念模型以与水力热力学的方式整合可用的地球科学数据，其范围应考虑数据和概念性不确定性。功率密度的累积分布函数可以从Wilmarth和Stimac图形汇编估计全球地热场功率密度与资源温度，通过概念设置分类。这种方法份额股份许多其他地热资源评估方法的问题，但其简单性往往使识别陷阱更有可能和减轻更加易行的。例如，该实施的一个问题是其可能不一致的区域估计。由于更新的概念模型未公布到大多数地热领域，因此功率密度基于从钻孔生产区域的周边估计的区域，而不是来自概念模型。从大致类似的领域的概念相关细节的比较可以提供对功率密度和决策树案例的一致性检查，用于提供现实发展的加权经济学。这种方法是在Excel工作簿中实施的，已被广泛用于地热行业的培训课程和经济决策。它可以在使用它的初始出版物中的用户参考本文的自由软件。

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