SUSTAINING GAS AND LNG GROWTH THROUGH ECONOMIC CYCLES: HOW SHOULD PRODUCERS ADJUST THEIR FORECASTING TOOLS

机译：通过经济循环维持天然气和液化天然气生长：生产者如何调整其预测工具

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Forecasting LNG demand is a challenging exercise. It usually starts with forecasting natural gas demand, which is itself a challenge, especially at times of economic and environmental crisis. It goes on estimating future domestic gas production: this may be complex, when the access to unconventional gas resources is fostered by technological and economical progress, or when policies for the development of domestic markets change the priority between local use and export. Pipeline gas imports are another determinant factor of any reliable LNG demand forecast: the timing of new international pipe infrastructure, amid geopolitical constraints, can change substantially the supply and demand balance.

机译：预测液化天然气需求是一个具有挑战性的运动。它通常始于预测天然气需求，这本身就是一个挑战，特别是在经济和环境危机时期。估计未来的国内天然气产量正在进行中：这可能是复杂的，当通过技术和经济的进展促进了不规范的气体资源，或者国内市场发展的政策改变了当地使用和出口之间的优先事项时。管道气体进口是任何可靠的LNG需求预测的另一个决定因素：新国际管道基础设施的时机，在地缘政治约束中，可以大大改变供需平衡。

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《International Conference and Exhibition on Liquefied Natural Gas》|2010年||共9页
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作者
Francois Ravel;
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中图分类石油、天然气加工工业;
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SUSTAINING GAS AND LNG GROWTH THROUGH ECONOMIC CYCLES: HOW SHOULD PRODUCERS ADJUST THEIR FORECASTING TOOLS

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