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>CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND TRANSPORTATION SECTOR ELECTRIFICATION: A DETAILED BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS IN WORLD TRANSPORT
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CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND TRANSPORTATION SECTOR ELECTRIFICATION: A DETAILED BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS IN WORLD TRANSPORT
The aim of this article is to study the impact of a massive diffusion of electric vehicles in the world transportation sector on the lithium market.Lithium,like other strategic materials,has found new markets in the context of the energy transition.Hence,the capacity of those strategic materials to supply these new markets can be questioned.To achieve this goal,we have developed the first detailed global bottom-up energy model,TIAM-IFPEN(Times Integrated Assessment Model-IFPEN)with an endogenous disaggregated life-cycle inventories.It would clearly assess the dynamic criticality of strategic materials according to the optimal technology paths with environmental and/or energy solicitations through different approaches: geological,geopolitical,and economic towards a sustainable development.Four scenarios have been run taking into account two climate scenarios(4°C and 2°C)with two shapes of mobility each: a high mobility where we assume the impact of urban dispersal with a huge car dependence/usage,and a low mobility where the idea of a sustainability in mobility is assumed.The penetration of electric vehicle(EV)at the global level would push the demand of cumulated lithium but the results show us an absence of geological criticality.Nevertheless,they have clearly highlighted other different forms of vulnerabilities,whether economic,industrial,geopolitical or environmental.A discussion about the future risk factors applied to the lithium market has been also done at a regional scale to analyse more in-depth the impact of the future global fleet development on lithium market.Our study of this particular strategic material shows that the model could be a useful decision-making tool for assessing future raw material market stresses along with energy transition and could be extended to other critical raw materials for more efficient regional and sectorial screening.
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