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The Relationship between Population Ageing and the Economic Growth in Asia

机译:人口老龄化与亚洲经济增长的关系

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Asia has witnessed robust economic growth since the 1960s. Today, emerging markets in Asia have managed to maintain rapid growth even when the world's main economies suffer from debt and banking crises. However, declining total fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, continuous change of birth and death patterns, and increasing share of old age population in the age distribution in Asia exert significant pressure on its economies. This paper analyses the relationship between population ageing and economic growth using 2 different panels of countries; one Asian and another the from the oldest countries worldwide between 1970 and 2014. The analysis is based on the Auto Regression Distributed Lag models. The MG (Mean Group) and PMG (Pooled Mean Group) estimations are applied in this analysis. The Hausman Test is conducted to decide between the MG and PMG estimators. We find that ageing will negatively affect the economy in the long run. The growing number of youths will initially have a negative effect on the economy but would eventually lead to a positive growth in the future. The old age dependency ratio has yet to have affect the Asian economy but is expected eventually to impose a negative effect as seen in the oldest nations of the world.
机译:自20世纪60年代以来,亚洲目睹了强劲的经济增长。如今,即使世界主要经济体遭受债务和银行业危机,亚洲的新兴市场也设法保持快速增长。然而,居住率下降,越来越寿命,持续变化的出生和死亡模式,以及亚洲时代分布中的年龄分布的增加份额对其经济体产生重大压力。本文分析了各国2个不同面板人口老龄化与经济增长的关系; 1970年至2014年间世界上最古老的国家的一个亚洲和另一个亚洲人。分析基于自动回归分布式滞后模型。在该分析中应用Mg(平均基团)和PMG(合并平均基团)估计。进行Hausman测试以在MG和PMG估计之间进行决定。我们发现老龄化将在长远来看会对经济产生负面影响。越来越多的年轻人最初将对经济产生负面影响,但最终会导致未来积极增长。老年依赖比率尚未影响亚洲经济,但预期最终会施加负面影响,如世界上最古老的国家所见。

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