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首页> 外文会议>Tarumanagara International Conference on the Applications of Technology and Engineering >Comparison of PERT and M-PERT scheduling for a construction project in Malang, Indonesia
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Comparison of PERT and M-PERT scheduling for a construction project in Malang, Indonesia

机译：Malang，印度尼西亚玛琅建设项目Pert和M-Pert调度的比较

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摘要

Construction projects planned using deterministic method suffers from delay caused by uncertainties that are not considered in advance when determining activity durations. Probabilistic method offers an alternative to consider such uncertainties using PERT. Several studies on PERT however, proved that PERT results underestimated the project duration mean and overestimated the project duration variance. In 2017, PERT was developed into M-PERT. This study aims to compare project duration obtained from both the PERT and M-PERT with project duration obtained from Monte Carlo simulation software. Results of PERT and M-PERT on the same network model showed that M-PERT produced smaller value of project duration variance compared to PERT at the same equal value of project duration mean. M-PERT also produced project duration with RMSE value towards the simulation results of 0.0001818. This value is smaller compared to PERT's RMSE value towards the simulation results of 0.0053961. This shows that M-PERT is able to produce results that are closer to computer simulation results compared to PERT. This study suggests that a probabilistic scheduling software which operates according to M-PERT principles should be developed in order for M-PERT to be completely utilized in actual construction projects.
机译：计划使用确定性方法计划的建设项目遭受由于在确定活动持续时间时未预先考虑的不确定性引起的延迟。概率方法提供了一种选择使用Pert的不确定性。然而，有几项关于Pert的研究证明，Pert结果低估了项目持续时间平均值和高估项目持续时间方差。 2017年，Pert已成为M-Pert。本研究旨在比较从Pert和M-Pert获得的项目持续时间与来自Monte Carlo仿真软件的项目持续时间。同一网络模型上的Pert和M-Pert的结果表明，与Pert相同的项目持续时间平均值相比，M-Pert产生的项目持续时间方差的较小值。 M-Pert还通过RMSE值朝向仿真结果产生0.0001818的项目持续时间。与Pert的RMSE值相比，该值较小，朝向0.0053961的仿真结果。这表明M-Pert能够产生与Pert相比更接近计算机仿真结果的结果。该研究表明，应开发根据M-PERT原理操作的概率调度软件，以便在实际建设项目中完全使用M-Pert。

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