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首页> 外文会议>International Symposium for Production Research >An Analytical Approach for Analysing the Impact of Risks on Production Planning: Case of Oztiryakiler
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An Analytical Approach for Analysing the Impact of Risks on Production Planning: Case of Oztiryakiler

机译：分析方法，用于分析风险对生产规划的影响：oztiryakiler的情况

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摘要

Accurate and applicable production plans are a must for manufacturing companies. Although companies tend to prepare ideal production plans, some exogenous factors can affect their validity. These risks, which occur unexpectedly, will have a negative influence on the plan. This study aims to determine the exogenous factors affecting the success of production planning of square and rectangular food containers manufactured by Oztiryakiler, and analyse their impacts on the plans. The risk factors are evaluated using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, and their risk priority numbers are calculated. A mixed-integer linear programming model with the objective of total cost minimisation is developed to obtain the production plan of containers. Initially, an ideal data set is used as input; hence, this model's output displays a risk-free plan. Similarly, for each of the risk factor scenarios, mathematical models are solved with risk-related data. GAMS software and CPLEX solver is utilised in the solution of all models. Finally, for each of the selected high risk alternative, the expected total costs are calculated. This is achieved by multiplying the normalized risk priority number obtained from the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis with the corresponding optimal total cost of the risky plan. This analysis highlights the most critical risks, and comparison with the risk-free plan helps in proposing system improvements.
机译：准确和适用的生产计划是制造公司的必备金额。虽然公司倾向于准备理想的生产计划，但一些外源性因素会影响其有效性。这些风险意外发生，对计划产生负面影响。本研究旨在确定影响OzTiryakiler生产的方形和矩形食品容器的生产规划成功的外源性因素，并分析其对计划的影响。使用故障模式和效果分析评估风险因素，并计算其风险优先级。具有总成本最小化的混合整数线性编程模型，以获得容器的生产计划。最初，使用理想的数据集用作输入;因此，该模型的输出显示无风险计划。类似地，对于风险因素情景，数学模型被风险相关数据解决。 GAMS软件和CPLEX求解器在所有型号的解决方案中使用。最后，对于每个所选高风险替代方案，计算预期的总成本。这是通过将从故障模式获得的归一化风险优先级数乘以与风险计划的相应最佳总成本的效果分析乘以归一化风险优先级。此分析突出了最关键的风险，与无风险计划的比较有助于提出系统改进。

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