Using a 1-m lidar digital elevation model and detailed wetlands mapping, we developed an inundation model that projects future wetland distribution caused by sea-level rise Vertical accretion, edge erosion, and land-subsidence components are also included in the model Applying the model to a section of Galveston Island, Texas, and using the actual annual record of ocean level recorded by a nearby tide gauge shows the complicated interplay of decadal-scale water-level variation and topography in determining the future distribution of wetlands. Total wetland coverage declines by 22% in 30 years but recovers to a net loss of just 5% within 90 years. Uplands transitioning to high-marsh wetlands more than offset the effects of inundation, allowing high-marsh wetlands to increase in coverage by 132%, Low-marsh wetlands, however, decrease by 77% at the end of the 90-year model period.
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