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首页> 外文会议>PSAM9 >Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis in modern y-ray industrial irradiator: use of fuzzy version of HEART and CREAM techniques for human error evaluation
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Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis in modern y-ray industrial irradiator: use of fuzzy version of HEART and CREAM techniques for human error evaluation

机译：现代Y射线工业辐照器的模糊故障树分析：使用模糊形态的心脏和奶油技术对人类误差评估

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摘要

As well known, the lack of accurate quantitative human reliability data is a serious limitation and source of uncertainty in risk assessment. Therefore, in the last years, many Authors suggested that the use of the fuzzy sets theory can fill up this gap, performing as useful tool when dealing with qualitative or vague information. In such a framework, the present paper refers to the obtained results by using Fuzzy Fault Tree analyses of accidental scenarios which entail the potential exposure of operators working in y-ray irradiation industrial plant. For these analyses the HEART methodology, a first generation HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) method, has been employed to evaluate the probability of human erroneous actions. This technique has been modified by us on the basis of fuizzy set concept to more directly take into account the uncertainties of the so called error-promoting factors, on which the methodology is grounded. The obtained results have been compared with the ones produced by using a new approach of the CREAM methodology, a second generation technique modified by other Authors on the basis of the fuzzy logic modeling architecture. The comparison shows that the occurrence probabilities of the examined potential exposure accidental event are quite coherent to each other.
机译：众所周知，缺乏准确的定量人体可靠性数据是风险评估中不确定性的严重限制和来源。因此，在过去几年中，许多作者建议使用模糊集理论可以填补这种差距，在处理定性或模糊信息时表现为有用的工具。在这样的框架中，本文是指通过使用意外场景的模糊断层树分析来获得所获得的结果，这需要在Y射线照射工业厂工作的运营商的潜在曝光。对于这些分析，已经采用了第一代HRA（人类可靠性分析）方法来评估人类错误行为的可能性。在Fuizzy Set Concep的基础上，我们已经通过我们修改了这种技术，以更直接地考虑所谓的错误促进因子的不确定性，方法是接地的。已经将获得的结果与通过使用奶油方法的新方法产生的结果进行了比较，这是基于模糊逻辑建模架构修改的第二代技术。比较表明，检查潜在的曝光意外事件的发生概率彼此相当连贯。

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