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首页> 外文会议>International Symposium on Mathematical and Computational Biology >MODELING THE RISK OF FALCIPARUM MALARIA FORTRAVELERS TO HOLOENDEMIC REGIONS
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MODELING THE RISK OF FALCIPARUM MALARIA FORTRAVELERS TO HOLOENDEMIC REGIONS

机译：将疟疾疟疾火灾危险的风险建模到核造影区

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Malaria has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The riskdepends on destination, duration and season of travel. However, data to quan-tify the true risk for travelers to acquire malaria are lacking. Methods: Weused mathematical models to estimate the risk of non-immune persons to ac-quire malaria when traveling to the Amazon region. From the force of infectionwe calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season ofarrival. Our data highlight that the risk for non-immune travelers to acquiremalaria in the Amazon region is substantial but varies greatly with seasons andepidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in the Amazon for 120days during the high season, the risk of acquiring malaria was 0.16%. Risk esti-mates based on mathematical modelling will help the travel medicine providergive better evidence based advice for travelers to malarial countries.
机译：疟疾已经成为国际旅行者的常见问题。目的地，持续时间和旅行季节的风险依赖。然而，缺乏数据的数据缺乏旅行者获得疟疾的真正风险。方法：杂草数学模型估计到亚马逊地区旅行时对AC-QUIRE疟疾的非免疫人员的风险。从感染力的力量依赖于登革热的风险，依赖于持续的持续时间和船长。我们的数据突出显示，亚马逊地区对可扰动性的非免疫旅行者的风险很大，但很大程度上与季节Antapidemic循环变化。例如，对于在高季期待120天留在亚马逊的旅行者，获得疟疾的风险为0.16％。基于数学建模的风险esti-伴侣将有助于旅行医学提供更好的循证迹象，即疟疾国家的旅行者的建议。

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