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首页> 外文会议>Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention >Drought Risk Prediction Based on Linear Discriminant and SPI at Different temporal scales
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Drought Risk Prediction Based on Linear Discriminant and SPI at Different temporal scales

机译：基于线性判别和SPI在不同时间尺度下的干旱风险预测

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摘要

Based on the data of ten-day periods precipitation and corn yield in Chaoyang City, using the multi-scale standardized precipitation index (SPI) of different growth stages to indicate drought conditions, and using yield fluctuations to show drought risk level. Between SPI and yield fluctuations a model was established by discriminant analysis, the model can predict the final drought risk level using SPI at different growth stages. The results show that using SPI and discriminant analysis can predict drought risk at high accuracy. With the growth stage advanced the precipitation date continuously added, predict accuracy gradually increased, the average accuracy increased from 60% to 80%. This study has value to popularize.
机译：基于朝阳市十天沉淀和玉米产量的数据，使用不同生长阶段的多尺度标准化降水指数（SPI）表示干旱条件，并使用产量波动显示干旱风险水平。在SPI和产量波动之间通过判别分析建立了模型，模型可以在不同的生长阶段使用SPI预测最终干旱风险水平。结果表明，使用SPI和判别分析可以以高精度预测干旱风险。随着增长阶段的提高沉淀日期不断增加，预测精度逐渐增加，平均精度从60％增加到80％。这项研究具有普及的价值。

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