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Analysis and Forecast of the Arable Land Resource and Food Production Safety in Anhui Province

机译：安徽省耕地资源与食品生产安全的分析与预测

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摘要

The total dynamic changes of the cultivated land and food production from 1990 to 2010 in Anhui Province were analyzed using the statistic data and minimum cultivated land per capita and pressure index on cultivated land were calculated based on cultivated land, food production and population. At the same time, adopting GM(1,1) model, per capita cultivated land area, minimum cultivated land per capita and pressure index on cultivated land were forecasted in the future 7 years. The results show that: (1) the total amount of the cultivated land decreased on the whole, steady decline early, while increased considerably late; Grain output went up steadily in the fluctuation in general; and the change of minimum cultivated land per capita and pressure index on cultivated land was not significant. (2) GM (1,1) gray model shows per capita cultivated land area, minimum cultivated land per capita and pressure index on cultivated land decreased, and arable land per capita is higher than the minimum per capita arable land area which descript farmland productivity levels higher than the level of food consumption.
机译：在1990年至2010年在安徽省耕地和粮食产量的总体动态变化分析了统计数据和最低耕地和耕地的压力指数，基于耕地，粮食生产和人口计算。同时，未来7年预测，采用通用汽车（1,1）模型，人均耕地面积，人均最低耕地和耕地压力指数。结果表明：（1）耕地的总量整体下降，稳步下降，同时增加了很晚;谷物产出一般在波动中稳步上升;并且最低耕地的变化人均和耕地上的压力指数并不重要。 （2）GM（1,1）灰色模型显示人均耕地面积，人均最低耕地和耕地压力指数下降，人均耕地均高于描述田地生产力的最低人均耕地面积水平高于食品消费水平。

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